Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew February 17 2023

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Hawks boost the USD


Good Morning, 

Please be aware that Monday is a US Market holiday

A higher PPI and hawkish Fed speakers let interest rate expectations rise and spark the expected market reaction of lower stocks and a higher USD. 

The Bullard and Mester were speaking for a more aggressive Fed path, the probability of a 50 BPS hike in Marc rises slightly to 13 from 10% ant eh peak rate rises to 5.28% in July. The year end rate is seen at 5.10.

Equities drop with the US500 at 4070, the US 30 33600 and the UStech100 12370. The GER40 is at 15440.

The USD Index rises to 104.45, EURUSD 1.0637, GBPUSD drops below 1,20 and USDJPY seems to be approaching the 135. Gold and Silver are under pressure at 1822 and 21.35.

UK retail sales came better than expected this morning, and from here the French CPI ant he US import Prices are possibly interesting, otherwise it should be a quiet day ion terms of releases and sentiment will be key.

Will the lower levels spark some buying interest or fear or lower levels? With more than a moth to the next FOMC meeting, a lot can happen to change the picture either way.

Trade safely.-

Expiries

        Physically Settled Futures

PAH3 will expire 20 Feb 2023

CCH3 will expire 21 Feb 2023

CTH3 will expire 21 Feb 2023

CLH3 will expire 21 Feb 2023

OJH3 will expire 22 Feb 2023

RCH3 will expire 22 Feb 2023

NGH3 will expire 23 Feb 2023

 

Expiring CFDs

FRA40FEB23 will expire 17 Feb 2023

NETH25FEB23 will expire 17 Feb 2023

OILUSMAR23 will expire 17 Feb 2023

PALLADIUMMAR23 will expire 17 Feb 2023

COCOANYMAR23 will expire 20 Feb 2023

COTTONMAR23 will expire 20 Feb 2023

NATGASUSMAR23 will expire 22 Feb 2023

TAIWAN95FEB23 will expire 23 Feb 2023

10YUSTNOTEMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

30YUSTBONDMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

COPPERUSMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

CORNMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

GASOLINEUSMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

HEATINGOILMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

SILVERMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

SOYBEANMEALMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

SOYBEANOILMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

SOYBEANSMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

SUGARNYMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

WHEATMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023

 

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.