Morning Brew July 27 2021
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Risk on on apparent calming in Ukraine
Easing tensions in Ukraine – or at least the hope thereof – sparked risk on sentiment and weighed on safe haven demand. The Dow gains 1.22% the S&P 1.58% and the Nasdaq 2.53%. Tech Stocks got fueled further by Intel`s takeover of Tower Semiconductor, Nvidia adds almost 10% ahead of the numbers today, Tesla more than 5% and apple more than 2%. Dax rose to 15433.
Gold and Silver lost and EURUSD gained while US 10 Year Yields rose to above 2.00 again. The USD Index fell to just below 96 and GBPUSD is trading at 1.3550 ahead of the UK CPI at 8:00 this morning, the expectation is for a 5.4% increase in prices. Gold is currently trading at 1854 so below the 1876 resistance again but well above the 1835 support. Silver fell to near 23,00 yesterday but made up half the losses to trade at 23.40 now.
Oil briefly fell to below 91 before stabilizing to 92.20.
Positive signals out of Ukraine were apparent withdrawal of Russian troops and an apparent willingness on the Russian side to continue talks.
Shortly after the good news, Ukraine reported massive cyberattacks and the US pointed out that there are still large number of troops on the border.
Chinese Inflation came less high than feared, the PPI at 9.1% vs 9.5% expected and the CPI at 0.9% vs 1% expected.
Driver today will be any confirmation of a de-escalation in the Ukraine or rising tensions again. Is worth taking note that Equities remain near the top while commodities and Precious Metals have retreated from the extremes toward caution.
Please bear in mind that market moves are larger than normal, the daily swings in the Dax index are almost 50% above the average, please take that into consideration.
Key Data coming up:
Today : UK CPI, US Retail sales, US Industrial Production
17th Turkey Rate decision, US Jobl3ess Data and Phily Fed
18th UK Retail Sales, Eurozone Consumer Confidence
Earnings today are Shopify,Wix.com, Hilton, Kraft, AMC, Nvidia and Cisco.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.