Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew August 16 2024

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Calm or nervous day as we are ending a great day for equities?


Good morning,

Equities had a further strong day as the Dow gained 1.39%, the S&P 1.61%, the Nasdaq 2.34%, the GER40 is trading at 18200 and the Japan 225 looks to be on the way to 40k again at now 37800. The us500 surged through the 50day moving average to trade at 5550. Nvidia gained 4%, Tesla 6.3%, Amazon 4.4% Meta 2%. If today remains friendly, it could be one of the best weeks for equities in years. 

Walmart reported better results and a strong outlook, this pulled retailers higher, the strong Retail Sales boosted sentiment on the state of the US economy. The expectation shifts to a cut of only 25 basis points cut in September, the %probability is now 70%

10-year yields rose to 3.90 and the USD Index to 102.90 due to the weak yen at 148.95 and EURUSD falling below 1.10 again. Gold and Silver are undecided, gold failed to break the 2480 and is looking for strength for the next attempt, silver initially got a boost as an industrial metal yesterday but then lost steam on higher yields, we are trading at 2453 and 28.16. Bitcoin gained 2.7% over night but remains below 60k at 58100, ETH 2594.

Yen Traders should be careful as political uncertainty about the new prime minister and the path of the BoJ leaves room for volatility.

Today’s agenda is basically empty, either setting us up for a calm or an erratic day, be ready for both.

Event risk remains from the middle East, as the talks on  ceasefire extend another day.

Next weeks highlight will be the  the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Economic Policy Symposium It is one of the longest-standing central banking conferences in the world. The event brings together economists, financial market participants, academics, U.S. government representatives, and news media to discuss long-term policy issues of mutual concern. The topic is  "Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy," will be held Aug. 22-24.

Friday
- Data Japan Tankan, UK Retail Sales, EU Trade Balance, US Housing starts

- Earnings:  Adyen

Monday
- Data  China Rate Decision, Japan Machine Orders,
- Earnings:
Tuesday
- Data EU Inflation, Turkey rate decision, Canada CPI,
- Earnings: Foxconn, CSL, Home Depot, Sea

Speakers:
Wednesday
- Data Japan Trade Balance
- Earnings:

Speakers:

Thursday
- Data International PMI, US Initial Jobless claims, EU Consumer Confidence, Jackson Hole Summit kicks off
- Earnings:
Friday
- Data Japan CIP Canada Retail Sales, US New Home  Sales

- Earnings: 

 

Physically Settled Futures

FCEQ4 will expire on 16/aug 1400 hrs.

MCLU4 will expire on 19/aug 1830 hrs.

OBFQ4 will expire on 16/aug 1400 hrs.

QMU4 will expire on 19/aug 1830 hrs.

WBSU4 will expire on 19/aug 1830 hrs.

CLU4 will expire on 20/aug 1830 hrs

 

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

Content disclaimer

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Bank A/S and its entities within the Saxo Bank Group provide execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.