Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew August 15 2022

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

 Good Morning,

Equities gained on Friday on hopes inflation  may have peaked and technically that the S&P managed to recover 50% of it`s losses at the 4231  level. This was seen as a positive signal. The Dow gained 1.3% an d3% for the week, the S&P 500 1.7% and 3.25% for the week and the Nasdaq 2.1% and 3.8% for the week.

Tesla and Nvidia both gained more than 4% on Friday, Tesla is trading at the 900 level again and Nvidia 187

The USD Index rose to 105.80, the next resistance is in the 105.90/106 area, GBPUSD is trading at 1.2110 and EURUSD at 1.0245. EURCHF fell below 0.97 and is trading at levels not seen since the SNB dropped the peg on Jan 15 2015 and caused massive jumps. The Japanese Yen is at 133.15.

Gold and Silver broke higher on Friday but fell over the weekend, Gold reached 1803 Friday and dropped to 1791 and Silver hit 20.85 to fall to 20.60 now.

Bitcoin is nearing 25k.again,

Overall Risk sentiment seems to flourish on the lack of new negative news and seems fragile. Contrarian traders will be tempted to short the rise but it may be safer to join the party while it lasts. Consider optionality to make the most of an unclear situation.

There is no significant US Inflation data this week, the focus will be on news, the FOMC Minutes and the Retail Sales on Friday.

 

The Chinese central bank cut rates over night to stir demand and boost the economy. Both the key data points, Retail Sales and Industrial Production disappointed.

Germany will decide an additional Gas Charge today that will likely weigh on sentiment, as it would reduce household spending power significantly. A 4 person household could loose up to €1000.

Kim Cramer sees higher rates possible givent eh technical setup in Bund Futures and 10 Year US Yields: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/bonds/ta-us10eu10-12082022

Peter Garnry writes:

The easing inflation narrative has been building strength for six weeks now and the short-term vindication in the US CPI release on Wednesday has bolstered the bulls.

Economic Data:

Today: Japan GDP, China Retail Sales

Tuesday: UK Employment, EU Trade Balance, German ZEW, US Housing starts and Industrial Production, Canada CPI

Wednesday: Japan Trade, UK CPI, EU GDP, US Retail Sales, FOMC MInutes

Thursday: EU HICP, Turkey rate decision, US Jobless claims, Philly Fed

Friday: UK Retail Sales, Canada Retail Sales.

Earnings:

  • Today: China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, Meituan, China Life Insurance, China Shenhua Energy, China Petroleum & Chemical, BHP Group, COSCO Shipping, Li Auto, Trip.com Group, DiDi Global
  • Tuesday: China Telecom, Walmart, Agilent Technologies, Home DepotSea Ltd
  • Wednesday: Tencent, Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing, Analog Devices, Cisco Systems, Synopsys, Lowe’s, CSL, Target, TJX, ColoplastCarlsberg, Wolfspeed
  • Thursday: Applied Materials, Estee Lauder, NetEase, AdyenNibe, Geberit
  • Friday: China Merchants Bank, CNOOC, Shenzhen Mindray, XiaomiDeere

Expiries

        Physically Settled Futures:

Cocoa (CCU2) will expire 17th Aug at 15:00 GMT.

Expiring CFDs:

COCOANYSEP22 will expire 16th Aug at 15:00 GMT.

OILUSSEP22 will expire 18th Aug at 15:00 GMT.

Futures can be rolled online via the Futures Spread Trade Ticket. Any open positions will be closed after the mentioned times.

 

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

Content disclaimer

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Bank A/S and its entities within the Saxo Bank Group provide execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900 Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.