Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Key earnings hitting extremely short markets
Good Morning,
We are going into a key earnings week with markets looking for the next key driver. Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday will be crucial. The AI outlook will be in focus for the big tech companies. On Friday, the business activity indexes came stronger than expected, which the market saw as a little hawkish. Over the weekend, Equities gave up a little ground with the US 500 at 4112 and the US Tech 100 NAS at 12931. The USD Index 101.80,. EURUSD 1.0980, GBPUSD 1.2425 Gold and Silver at 1980 and 24.95. Bitcoin stabilized at 27700 after last weeks decline.
With the Key Rate decisions coming up next week, traders will focus on any hint on the rate path even if the expectation for next week are clear: the Fed is seen to hike 25 bps with 90% probability and the ECB with 70, it is the path from there that will be decisive.
Hedge Funds have built up the largest short position S&P 500 Futures in more than 10 years with 680k contracts. In Q1 almost half of the US 500 rise was carried by Apple and Microsoft, Microsoft will report on Tuesday and Apple on the 4th of May.
In Switzerland Credit Suisse suffered 61 bio in outflows in Q1 and reports withdrawals have not been fully halted by the UBS takeover.
Trade carefully as the market will be rather nervous overall and the extremely short markets could cause massive swings, also to the upside if stops get triggered.
Monday
Economic Data:
Germany IFO
Earnings: Coca Cola, Credit Suisse,
Tuesday
Economic Data:
Japan PPI
US, Case Shiller, Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales
Earnings: UBS Verizon, UPS, Halliburton, GM, McDonalds, GE, 3m Pepsico, Spotify, Raytheon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, TI, Juniper
Wednesday
Economic Data:
Australia Trade Data,
Sweden Rate Decision
France Unemployment
US Durable Goods
Earnings:Boeing, General DynamicsMeta, Roku, Enovics,
Thursday
Economic Data:
Sweden GDP,
EU Consumer Confidence
Turkey Rate Decision
US GDP Advance, Initial Jobless claims
Earnings: American Airlines, Caterpillar, Mastercard, Merck ,Amazon, Intel, Pinterest, Gilead, Amgen,
Friday
Economic Data:
Swiss KOF
Germany Unemployment, GDP
EU GDP
US PCE, University of Michigan,
Canada GDP
Earnings:
ExxonMobile, Colgate,Cameco,
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