Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew August 11 2021

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Waiting for the CPI, EURUSD at a key level


Good Morning all,

Markets are a bit quiet – if not actually a bit dull ahead of the US CPI this afternoon at 14:30 CET.

While US Equitiy closed at records again, movements were fairly small considering that the 1 trillion infrastructure deal made it through the senate and the process on the 3.5 trillion budget has started. US Indexes closed 0.1-0.5% higher, Europe also gained and over night we saw minute retracements. Gold and silver traded lower yesterday but recovered to 1734 and 23.40, EURUSD is at 1.1715 and GBPUSD at 1.3826. The USD Index rose above 93.10 and Bitcoin 46,000.

EURUSD is right at a key support level here and a break lower would suggest a move to 1.1620.

The big question is if the CPI today calls for fed action in terms of either tapering or a shift to a rate hike earlier or if the argument the high inflation was only transitory can be maintained. In recent economic data releases, FX has been more sensitive to rates while equities are more driven by QE and money flow. Watch out for comments after the data we well as for the data itself.

The Core CPI YY is expected at 4.3%, the CPI MM SA at 0.5%, the CPI YY NSA at 5.3%.

The German CPI was released as expected

Safe trading

Local Start Date

Local Time

Country/Region

Indicator Name

Period

Reuters Poll

11 Aug 2021

10:00

Italy

CPI (EU Norm) Final MM

Jul

-1.1%

11 Aug 2021

10:00

Italy

CPI (EU Norm) Final YY

Jul

0.9%

11 Aug 2021

14:00

Brazil

Retail Sales YY

Jun

9.00%

11 Aug 2021

14:30

United States

CPI MM, SA

Jul

0.5%

12 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

Corp Goods Price MM

Jul

0.5%

12 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

Corp Goods Price YY

Jul

5.0%

12 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP Est 3M/3M

Jun

4.8%

12 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP Estimate MM

Jun

0.7%

12 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP Estimate YY

Jun

15.0%

12 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

Manufacturing Output MM

Jun

0.4%

12 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP Prelim QQ

Q2

4.8%

12 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP Prelim YY

Q2

22.1%

12 Aug 2021

13:00

Turkey

CBT Weekly Repo Rate

Aug

19.00%

12 Aug 2021

13:00

Turkey

O/N Lending Rate

Aug

12 Aug 2021

13:00

Turkey

O/N Borrowing Rate

Aug

12 Aug 2021

13:00

Turkey

Late Liquidity Window Rate

Aug

12 Aug 2021

14:30

United States

Initial Jobless Clm

7 Aug, w/e

373k

13 Aug 2021

08:45

France

CPI (EU Norm) Final MM

Jul

0.1%

13 Aug 2021

08:45

France

CPI (EU Norm) Final YY

Jul

1.6%

13 Aug 2021

09:00

Turkey

Current Account Balance

Jun

13 Aug 2021

09:30

Sweden

CPI MM

Jul

0.3%

13 Aug 2021

09:30

Sweden

CPI YY

Jul

1.4%

13 Aug 2021

16:00

United States

U Mich Sentiment Prelim

Aug

81.2

16 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

GDP QQ

Q2

0.2%

16 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

GDP QQ Annualised

Q2

0.7%

16 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

GDP QQ Pvt Consmp Prelim

Q2

-0.1%

16 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

GDP QQ Capital Expend.

Q2

1.7%

16 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

GDP QQ External Demand

Q2

-0.1%

16 Aug 2021

04:00

China (Mainland)

Urban Investment (YTD)YY

Jul

16 Aug 2021

04:00

China (Mainland)

Industrial Output YY

Jul

16 Aug 2021

04:00

China (Mainland)

Retail Sales YY

Jul

16 Aug 2021

12:00

Euro Zone

Reserve Assets Total

Jul

(refinitv)

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