Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning
Markets are fairly quiet and still looking for direction, US Indexes closed a little lower yesterday but could recover the losses over night. Volumes were well below the recent average. US 10 year yield fall to below 1.20 and the USD Index remains below 92.10. Bitcoin cannot hold above the 40k to trade at 38.300. Gold and Silver lose to 1811 and 27.30.
The Australian central bank upheld it’s decision to taper it`s asset purchase program despite the delta corona variant on the rise, the AUD rises to the upper end of the range neat 0.74.
According to a Reuters report, China issued guidelines that require up to 100% local content on hundreds of items, erecting fresh barriers for foreign suppliers. Chinese state media called online video games "spiritual opium", sending shares of Tencent down 8% on worries of looming regulation.
Chinas interventions in the market seem to be continuing and it will be interesting to see what may come next.
Standard Chartered can raise profits despite falling revenues and announced a share buyback.
Today there are few key economic events, US Factory Orders are significant and progress on the US Infrastructure plan could be positive.
This week’s earnings include: Alibaba, Eli Lilly, BP, ConocoPhillips, Toyota, Sony, General Motors, Uber, Siemens, Merck, Square, Llumina, Novo Nordisk, Moderna, Berkshire Hathaway Allianz, Adidas
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll | Unit |
3 Aug 2021 | 09:00 | Turkey | CPI MM | Jul | 1.54% | Percent |
3 Aug 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | Industrial Output MM | Jun | 0.0% | Percent |
3 Aug 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | Industrial Output YY | Jun | 11.8% | Percent |
3 Aug 2021 | 14:00 | New Zealand | Milk Auctions | 3 Aug, w/e | USD | |
3 Aug 2021 | 15:30 | Canada | Markit Mfg PMI SA | Jul | Index (diffusion) | |
3 Aug 2021 | 16:00 | United States | Factory Orders MM | Jun | 1.0% | Percent |
4 Aug 2021 | 00:45 | New Zealand | HLFS Unemployment Rate | Q2 | 4.5% | Percent |
4 Aug 2021 | 00:45 | New Zealand | Labour Cost Index - QQ | Q2 | 0.7% | Percent |
4 Aug 2021 | 00:45 | New Zealand | Labour Cost Index - YY | Q2 | 2.1% | Percent |
4 Aug 2021 | 02:30 | Japan | Services PMI | Jul | Index (diffusion) | |
4 Aug 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Retail Sales MM Final | Jun | -1.8% | Percent |
4 Aug 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Retail Trade | Q2 | 0.9% | Percent |
4 Aug 2021 | 03:45 | China (Mainland) | Caixin Services PMI | Jul | Index (diffusion) | |
4 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Reserve Assets Total | Jul | USD | |
4 Aug 2021 | 09:50 | France | Markit Serv PMI | Jul | 57.0 | Index (diffusion) |
4 Aug 2021 | 09:50 | France | Markit Comp PMI | Jul | Index (diffusion) | |
4 Aug 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Markit Services PMI | Jul | 62.2 | Index (diffusion) |
4 Aug 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Markit Comp Final PMI | Jul | Index (diffusion) | |
4 Aug 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Serv Final PMI | Jul | 60.4 | Index (diffusion) |
4 Aug 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Comp Final PMI | Jul | 60.6 | Index (diffusion) |
4 Aug 2021 | 15:00 | Brazil | Markit Services PMI | Jul | Index (diffusion) | |
4 Aug 2021 | 15:00 | Brazil | Markit Composite PMI | Jul | Index (diffusion) | |
4 Aug 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Comp Final PMI | Jul | Index (diffusion) | |
4 Aug 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Svcs PMI Final | Jul | Index (diffusion) | |
4 Aug 2021 | 16:00 | United States | ISM N-Mfg PMI | Jul | 60.4 | Index |
4 Aug 2021 | 23:00 | Brazil | Selic Interest Rate | 4 Aug | 5.25% | Percent |
5 Aug 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Trade Balance G&S (A$) | Jun | 10,450M | AUD |
5 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | Industrial Orders MM | Jun | 1.5% | Percent |
5 Aug 2021 | 13:00 | United Kingdom | BOE Bank Rate | Aug | 0.10% | Percent |
5 Aug 2021 | 13:00 | United Kingdom | GB BOE QE Corp | Aug | 20B | GBP |
5 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | International Trade $ | Jun | -73.9B | USD |
5 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Initial Jobless Clm | 31 Jul, w/e | 380k | Person |
5 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Trade Balance C$ | Jun | -0.80B | CAD |
6 Aug 2021 | 05:00 | New Zealand | Reserve Assets Total | Jul | NZD | |
6 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | Industrial Output MM | Jun | 0.5% | Percent |
6 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Halifax House Prices MM | Jul | Percent | |
6 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | Norway | Reserve Assets Total | Jul | NOK | |
6 Aug 2021 | 08:45 | France | Reserve Assets Total | Jul | EUR | |
6 Aug 2021 | 09:00 | Switzerland | Forex Reserves CHF | Jul | CHF | |
6 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Non-Farm Payrolls | Jul | 900k | Person |
6 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Unemployment Rate | Jul | 5.7% | Percent |
6 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Average Earnings YY | Jul | 3.9% | Percent |
6 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Employment Change | Jul | 150.0k | Person |
6 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Unemployment Rate | Jul | 7.4% | Percent |
7 Aug 2021 | China (Mainland) | Exports YY | Jul | Percent | ||
7 Aug 2021 | China (Mainland) | Imports YY | Jul | Percent | ||
7 Aug 2021 | China (Mainland) | Trade Balance USD | Jul | USD | ||
9 Aug 2021 | 03:30 | China (Mainland) | PPI YY | Jul | Percent | |
9 Aug 2021 | 03:30 | China (Mainland) | CPI YY | Jul | Percent |
(Refinitiv)
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
