Chart of the Week: Container volumes at the Port of Los Angeles
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Summary: Our 'Macro Chartmania' series collects Macrobond data and focuses on a single chart chosen for its relevance.
Click here to download this week's full edition of Macro Chartmania.
In today’s edition, we focus once again on global trade and the U.S. economy in these unusual circumstances. One of our favorite coincident trade indicators is the evolution of container volumes at the Port of Los Angeles. As it is the number one port in the U.S. in terms of container volume and value and the busiest entryway for ocean trade with China, any major change in data could be of great significance for the global and U.S. outlooks. The least we can say is that the economic panorama has hardly improved in recent months if we rely on shipping data. YoY statistics about container volumes are still in contraction with the latest figure for July out at minus 6.11% after a lowest point reached at minus 30.94% at the start of the outbreak in March. If we look at the below chart, there is no V-shaped or U-shaped recoveries in sight for the shipping industry but rather a W-shaped recovery. Despite the effective containment of the outbreak in China, the global supply chain has not fully-recovered and global trade remains hampered by the resurgence of the virus in many countries, notably in some U.S. states, and related economic uncertainty. The shipping industry will certainly take years to recover from coronavirus. Statistics for the month of August, that should be released around September 15, should confirm the Port of Los Angeles is not out of the woods yet and the economic recovery has reached a plateau in many developed countries, including the U.S., in August, as pointed out by numerous high-frequency data.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook Q3 2022: The Runaway Train
- Central banks' attempts to kill inflation is a paradigm shift, which could end in a deep recession.
Tangible assets and profitable growth are the winnersWith US equities officially in a bear market, the big question is where and when is the bottom in the current drawdown?
Understanding the lack of investment appetite among oil majorsThe everything rally seen in recent quarters has become more uneven, as its strength is driven by commodities in short supply.
The pressure is on as the wind leaves the sailsWith cryptocurrencies in sharp decline, are we entering a crypto winter or is the bear market a healthy clean-up of the crypto space?
Why the Fed can never catch up and what turns the US dollar lower?Many other central banks are set to eventually outpace the Fed in hiking rates, taking their real interest rates to levels higher than the Fed will achieve.
Bank of Japan: Swimming against the tideThe Japanese economy has gone from the age of deflation to rapidly rising prices in no time, leaving the Bank of Japan in a pickle.
Green transformation detour and bear market hibernationWith the impending risk of global econonomic derailment, we share the five things investors need to consider in this new half year.
Crisis redux for the eurozone?Whether there's going to be a recession in Europe or not, the path towards a stable economy will be agonizing.
Technical Outlook: Gold, Oil and a remarkable multi-decade perspective on EquitiesThe Nasdaq bubble pattern, USDJPY resistance, crude oil uptrend losing steam and the technical outlook for USD.
China: the train of new development paradigm left the station two years agoChina is transiting to a new development paradigm, as they are hit by deteriorating terms of trade, a slower global economy and an uncertain future while continuing attempts to contain the pandemic.