Weekly FX Chartbook: Dollar to end 2023 in a bearish trend Weekly FX Chartbook: Dollar to end 2023 in a bearish trend Weekly FX Chartbook: Dollar to end 2023 in a bearish trend

Weekly FX Chartbook: Dollar to end 2023 in a bearish trend

Forex 5 minutes to read
Charu Chanana 400x400
Charu Chanana

Head of FX Strategy

Summary:  A confirmation of the Fed pivot by Chair Powell could underpin a bearish dollar environment into the end of the year, with seasonality supporting the risk on move as well despite some pushback from other Fed members. Bank of Japan is a key event risk ahead, but markets will likely get quieter after that before 2024 could bring back a reality check on soft landing hopes and delayed pivots from ECB and BOE.


18_FX_Weekly
Dollar's move lower last week propelled gains in other currencies, with NOK leading the way on a surprise Norges Bank rate hike. Yen gains will be in focus this week as BOJ decision is due.
18_FX_Momentum
Momentum is most bullish for JPY but BOJ's pushback to exit expectations could weaken that before focus turns back to Fed. USD momentum likely to stay bearish into year-end.
18_FX_Positioning
Forex COT to the week of Dec 12 ahead of FOMC indicates further selling in USD to a net short positioning. EUR longs were cut, but fresh longs were added in GBP and short covering seen in yen, CHF and AUD.
18_FX_G10 views

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