Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
NY Open: Dollar starts November on feet of clay
Michael O’Neill
FX Trader, Loonieviews.net
Summary: Risk sentiment is strong into November, but it isn't doing US dollar bulls any favours with both GBPUSD and USDJPY in focus into the New York session.
The dollar is in full retreat. Month-end portfolio rebalancing flows have faded, global equity market sentiment is cautiously positive, and the Bank of England policy statement and Quarterly Inflation Report were largely as expected.
The BoE left the repo rate unchanged at 0.75%, suggested that rates would rise if the economy grew as predicted and then hedged everything by repeating its forecasts were based on an “orderly” Brexit.
The US dollar added to its overnight losses on the back of improved risk sentiment. US ISM Manufacturing PMI was 57.7, below the 59.0 expected and 59.8 recorded in September. USDJPY dropped through the 112.70 overnight low as 10-year US Treasury yields eased. The intraday technicals are bearish while prices are below 113.00 looking for a test of support at 112.50. GBPUSD climbed from a New York low of 1.2865 to 1.2933. The short-term technicals have flipped to bullish supported by the break above the downtrend line at 1.2830 overnight. A decisive break above the 1.2925-35 area targets 1.3030.
The steep oil price slide that started October 10 shows no signs of easing. WTI oil dropped from $74.90/barrel to $64.68/b overnight. Prices have bounced to $65.02/b, but the downtrend is intact below $66.30 on a four-hour chart. Traders are more concerned about rising crude inventories and the risk of slowing global growth and less worried about the US sanctions on Iran.
Wall Street opened on a positive note, boosted by the China-induced jump in global equity indices. Better than expected quarterly earnings reports and comments by Treasury Secretary Larry Kudlow that new tariffs on China imports could still be avoided, supported prices. Traders are looking ahead to Apple’s (AAPL: Nasdaq) quarterly earnings after the closing bell today. Apple is expected to generate earnings of $2.78/share on $60-$62.0 billion in revenue.
The BoE left the repo rate unchanged at 0.75%, suggested that rates would rise if the economy grew as predicted and then hedged everything by repeating its forecasts were based on an “orderly” Brexit.
The US dollar added to its overnight losses on the back of improved risk sentiment. US ISM Manufacturing PMI was 57.7, below the 59.0 expected and 59.8 recorded in September. USDJPY dropped through the 112.70 overnight low as 10-year US Treasury yields eased. The intraday technicals are bearish while prices are below 113.00 looking for a test of support at 112.50. GBPUSD climbed from a New York low of 1.2865 to 1.2933. The short-term technicals have flipped to bullish supported by the break above the downtrend line at 1.2830 overnight. A decisive break above the 1.2925-35 area targets 1.3030.
The steep oil price slide that started October 10 shows no signs of easing. WTI oil dropped from $74.90/barrel to $64.68/b overnight. Prices have bounced to $65.02/b, but the downtrend is intact below $66.30 on a four-hour chart. Traders are more concerned about rising crude inventories and the risk of slowing global growth and less worried about the US sanctions on Iran.
Wall Street opened on a positive note, boosted by the China-induced jump in global equity indices. Better than expected quarterly earnings reports and comments by Treasury Secretary Larry Kudlow that new tariffs on China imports could still be avoided, supported prices. Traders are looking ahead to Apple’s (AAPL: Nasdaq) quarterly earnings after the closing bell today. Apple is expected to generate earnings of $2.78/share on $60-$62.0 billion in revenue.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...