The G-10 rundown
USD – the US dollar broadly firm, but completely inert here as we await whether the Fed puts up any rhetorical protest to the current environment at the FOMC meeting on January 29th.
EUR – waiting for next Thursday’s ECB minutes and whether the data start to pick up on signs that China is stabilizing. Next Friday’s flash Euro Zone PMI’s the most recent data on that front.
JPY – the jolt higher in US yields on the possible new 20-year treasury note helping USDJPY stay aloft above 110.00.
GBP – sterling resilience looked rather interesting until this morning's weak UK December Retail Sales release spoiled that particularly move. The market firming its view that BoE cuts on January 30.
CHF – EURCHF remains heavy but has not tacked on additional downside here. A bit tough to work lower, perhaps, as yields ticked up late yesterday.
AUD – constructive on AUD if positive risk appetite continues – the Australia mining giant BHP Billiton chalking up a new highs since last summer - but we need to see something on the charts, like a move above 0.7000 in AUDUSD, to excite upside interest and more short-covering. Otherwise, interest restricted to the crosses like AUDNZD.
CAD – A busy week next week for CAD, as the Bank of Canada is out mid-week and with a few data points on the economic calendar. The recent rally has neutralized the downside risk if 1.3000 holds, but there is no momentum.
NZD – still like AUD outperformance here versus NZD, with the next major test of the AUDNZD pair over next Thursday’s Australian employment data and NZ Q4 CPI data on Friday.
SEK – bears may feel that it is worth testing the downside in EURSEK here – the backdrop just too supportive from a risk appetite angle to expect a move up through the 9.60+ pivot area.
NOK – prefer fading EURNOK rallies as long as we remain below 10.00, but the price action is completely dead. Both Norges Bank and ECB next Thursday.
Today’s Economic Calendar Highlights
- 0930 – UK Dec. Retail Sales
- 1330 – US Dec. Housing Starts and Building Permits
- 1400 – US Fed’s Harker (voter) to Speak
- 1415 – US Dec. Industrial Production
- 1500 – US Jan. Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment