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The USD picture is clear as mud at the moment – with recent commodity dollar breakouts versus the greenback not seeing further progression today and USD/EM trade consolidating after their recent big run lower. The US jobs report today was rather positive, with a new five-year high in the participation rate (long time unemployed returning to the work force) and payrolls beat, although earnings growth was a bit more sluggish than expected.
Next week could prove pivotal for the Aussie, with a Reserve Bank of Australia meeting up on Tuesday and the market very curious whether the bank will alter its guidance in recognition of rapidly falling Australian housing prices. Still, with Aussie and elsewhere, the risk for low energy levels in EM is prominent if the market is taking its cue from China, as markets there are closed all week for the New Year holiday, and as we continue to wait for the outcome of US-China trade negotiations. Today’s FX Breakout monitor
The big JPY crosses continue to avoid sending clear break signals as USDJPY bounced after the initial sell-off in the wake of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting and EURJPY can’t decide what to do around 125.00. NZDUSD, AUDUSD and USDCAD all broke out this week – watching the close today and action early next week to see if these amount to anything or are rejected.