USD continues the climb higher after higher than expected US CPI last week and increased inflation fears. The dollar got an extra boost yesterday as Biden nominated Powell for a second term as FED chair, which was seen as the hawkish choice. USD is sharply higher over the last two weeks and the USD index trades at the highest level since July last year.
GBPUSD still hasn’t made a clean break of the 1.3400 support from end of September. Spot did another test yesterday without been able to build any momentum to the downside and spot currently trades just below 1.3400.
USD vols are higher in general over the last weeks with GBPUSD 1 month up from 6.85 to 7.75 over the last two weeks. All currency pairs trades with a positive risk premium after the last weeks surge in vol, with GBPUSD risk premium at 0.6 vol. There has been strong demand to buy USD calls which has moved risk reversals higher for USD calls. 1 month GBPUSD risk reversal trades at 0.9 vol for the downside, favor GBP puts/USD calls.
We like to play downside GBPUSD through ratio put spreads to take advantage of both the high vol and risk reversal. Alternative sell covered puts, keep a short delta position against it, or sell outright put if you think spot wont break down below 1.3400.
Buy 1 month 1.3350 GBPUSD put in 1 mio
Sell 1 month 1.3150 GBPUSD put in 1.5 mio
Cost 46 pips
The 1.3350 cost 106 pips on its own.
Sell 1 month 1.3200 GBPUSD putSpot ref.: 1.3380
Receive 50 pips