OTC Derivatives Trading
Summary: USD continue to climb higher and got another push higher yesterday as Biden nominated Powell for a second term as FED chair. Vols trades bid and risk reversals are better bid for USD calls. GBPUSD is testing the 1.3400 support again and we like to play any downside GBPUSD through ratio put spreads to take advantage of the high vol and risk reversal.
Saxo Bank publishes two weekly FX Options Market Update reports covering changes and updates on the FX Options and FX Volatility market. They describe changes in FX volatility levels, risk premium and ideas how to trade based on these.
USD continues the climb higher after higher than expected US CPI last week and increased inflation fears. The dollar got an extra boost yesterday as Biden nominated Powell for a second term as FED chair, which was seen as the hawkish choice. USD is sharply higher over the last two weeks and the USD index trades at the highest level since July last year.
GBPUSD still hasn’t made a clean break of the 1.3400 support from end of September. Spot did another test yesterday without been able to build any momentum to the downside and spot currently trades just below 1.3400.
USD vols are higher in general over the last weeks with GBPUSD 1 month up from 6.85 to 7.75 over the last two weeks. All currency pairs trades with a positive risk premium after the last weeks surge in vol, with GBPUSD risk premium at 0.6 vol. There has been strong demand to buy USD calls which has moved risk reversals higher for USD calls. 1 month GBPUSD risk reversal trades at 0.9 vol for the downside, favor GBP puts/USD calls.
We like to play downside GBPUSD through ratio put spreads to take advantage of both the high vol and risk reversal. Alternative sell covered puts, keep a short delta position against it, or sell outright put if you think spot wont break down below 1.3400.
Buy 1 month 1.3350 GBPUSD put in 1 mio
Sell 1 month 1.3150 GBPUSD put in 1.5 mio
Cost 46 pips
The 1.3350 cost 106 pips on its own.
Alternative
Sell 1 month 1.3200 GBPUSD put
Receive 50 pips
You should be aware that in purchasing Foreign Exchange Options, your potential loss will be the amount of the premium paid for the option, plus any fees or transaction charges that are applicable, should the option not achieve its strike price on the expiry date
If you write an option, the risk involved is considerably higher than buying an option. You may be liable for margin to maintain your position and a loss may be sustained well in excess of the premium received.
By writing an option, you accept a legal obligation to purchase or sell the underlying asset if the option is exercised against you; however far the market price has moved away from the strike. If you already own the underlying asset that you have contracted to sell, your risk will be limited.
If you do not own the underlying asset the risk can be unlimited. Only experienced persons should contemplate writing uncovered options, then only after securing full detail of the applicable conditions and potential risk exposure.
Forex Options – An introduction
Forex Options – Exotic options
Forex Options - WebinarsBond. Long Bond(s)
With real rates being too positive, we see three scenarios: Opportunity to lock in rates at cycle high, government overreach to keep the economy afloat or a complete reset of the economy.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
Is a bond bull market ahead? Inflation still poses a risk for investors, but the moment for increasing duration to your portfolio may be approaching towards the end of the year, when central banks might be forced to cut interest rates.
Althea Spinozzi,
Senior Fixed Income Strategist
The furious rate hike cycle has brought gains in the US dollar, but with stagflation risks in Europe and the UK and weakness in the Chinese economy, USD may have more room to run. But a strong dollar could also have repercussions for US growth, emerging markets and commodity prices.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
With the cost of capital rising painfully, stagflation fears are back, illuminating the fragile state of the green transformation, while giving a tailwind to nuclear power, and threatening the growth of AI-related stocks.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With supply tightness not only in energy but all commodities, the momentum in commodity prices may continue, pressuring central banks to lower real rates. That could be a good setup for precious metals, including gold, silver and potentially platinum as well.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
As the pandemic showed, even the US Treasury can experience seismic shifts. With the government increasing the pace of issuing bonds to support fiscal spending, the complex Treasury market and regulatory constraints could spark a liquidity event.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The tide has turned for bonds. Given the current yields, bonds have become an attractive investment, with added benefits including lower risk than stocks, increased diversification and a steady stream of income unaffected by economic changes.
Peter Siks,
Investment Coach
