Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
AEX25 closed Friday above resistance at 703.40 after trading above during the session touching 0.786 retracement around 710.
If AEX25 closes below 703 it could see a correction that could take the Index down to 690 possibly 680
RSI is showing positive sentiment indicating higher levels and there is no resistance on the AEX Index until around 736-741
If AEX closes below the 200 daily SMA bears could get renewed energy and a close below 670 will result in AEX turning bearish.
AEX25 is at the time of writing trading above the medium-term falling. The 100 and 55 weekly SMA’s are providing so0me resistance btu strong resistance is around 740.
Weekly RSI is still negative and needs to close above 60 to change that.
BEL20 closed Thursday above resistance at 3,619 extending to the short-term uptrend. RSI indicates BEL20 could extend the uptrend possibly to the strong resistance area around 3,740-3,767.
If BEL20 closes below its short-term rising trend the uptrend is in jeopardy and a close below 3,569 is likely to result in downtrend to resume.
BEL20 has broken above its medium-term falling trend line. RSI is still showing negative sentiment and there is strong resistance around 3,740. Weekly 200 SMA will add to the strength of the resistance level.
CAC40 closed Friday just below key resistance at 6,609. Hovering around the resistance the key question is, will CAC40 close above or below. A close above will indicate CAC40 to expend its strong short term uptrend.
The leading French index has already broken the medium-term falling trend line (see weekly chart) and a close will confirm the medium-term uptrend with no resistance until around 6,830
If CAC40 fails to close above 6,609 the Index is likely to slide back. A close below short-term rising trendline followed by a close below 6,381 is likely to awaken the bears to push the CAC down to around 6,183 support.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.