background image

Private equity is winning big, US economy is showing 1980s heat

Equities 8 minutes to read
PG
Peter Garnry

Head of Equity Strategy

Summary:  Listed private equity firms are up 27% this year being one of the best performing segments in the global equity market. Many private equity firms provided crucial financial assistance to their portfolio companies during the crisis months of the pandemic and are now reaping the windfall. Credibly benign financial conditions are also helping private equity firms to leverage their balance sheets. However, it is not all without risks as investors are paying the most on record for listed private equity. In this equity update we also take a look at the US economy which as of May is operating at the highest activity levels since 1984.


Regularly readers know we have created a lot of theme baskets that we track do understand market dynamics. Year-to-date the two best themes are crypto & blockchain and logistics. A theme basket we have not created yet is listed private equity firms, but if it were a theme basket it would be the third best theme this year up 26.9%. It should not be a big surprise given the low interest rate environment and benign funding conditions for private equity firms, although on the downside the competition for deals has gone up significantly.

22_PG_1
22_PG_2
Source: Bloomberg

Since late 2003 listed private equity has delivered 9.2% annualized returns compared to 8.4% annualized for the MSCI World Index including reinvestment of dividends. However, the alpha has come with higher risk measured both in terms of variance and drawdowns. As the long-term total return chart above shows, private equity firms have done much better than the overall equity market since the lows in March 2020. Why are private equity firms doing so well and are there any risks?

Long-term returns have been driven by financial leverage, expertise in niche financial markets such as distressed companies, infrastructure, growth capital to non-listed companies, mergers and acquisitions, real estate, and credit, which are parts of the financial markets that many market participants have difficulties accessing. This expertise and network effects within industries, banks, and governments, create alpha for the shareholders. The question is always whether the risk-adjusted returns are that good.

This recent report from Deloitte touches on some few factors. One of the key aspects during the pandemic has been financial assistance to their portfolio companies. With greater uncertainty came harder refinancing terms for many companies and the turmoil in many industries also created deal opportunities. It seems private equity firms have been aggressive in providing financial assistance to their portfolio companies providing them a better foundation to accelerate out of the pandemic. The report also states that the asset under management will grow rapidly over the coming years for private equity firms. In theory it sounds great but from a shareholder perspective it sounds like more capital chasing higher equity valuation lowering future returns. But interestingly enough that is not what we are observing in market pricing of listed private equity.

22_PG_3

The listed private equity firms in the chart are: Blackstone Group, Partners Group, Brookfield Asset Management, 3i Group, KKR, Apollo Global Management, Intermediate Capital Group, FS KKR Capital, Ares Capital, and Owl Rock Capital

The chart above shows the 10 largest listed private equity firms on their median price-to-book ratio showing that the industry just hit the highest measure price-to-book ratio on record at 2.4x compared to 0.9x in January 2013 and an average of 1.5x over the entire period. Higher price-to-book values can mean many things but the core signal stemming from the Dupont model is that the expected return on equity is going up; this could be because more portfolio companies are becoming digital companies although that is not what we generally observe. Alternatively, the higher price-to-book ratio could mean that there are more intangible assets not showing up on the balance sheet. Whatever the explanation is private equity firms are historically expensive and have high return expectations. They also have considerably financial leverage as KKR’s balance sheet shows and debt leverage has rapidly increased since 2012, but the lower interest rates have kept a lid on interest expenses. In other words, private equity firms have enjoyed the tailwind of monetary policy.

The US economy is the hottest since 1984

The talk is all about inflation these days. While supply side effects are a big part of the current inflationary pressures the demand side is also strong driven by fiscal stimulus. Due to debt saturation in the economy the credit growth cannot be a meaningful amplifier of inflation in the developed world, so it must be direct stimulus from the fiscal side. But how big is the current stimulus?

The broadest measure of the US economy is the Chicago Fed National Activity Index measuring 85 indicators on the US economy with positive values meaning the US economy is growing above trend growth. The three-month average is currently 0.81 which is the highest since 1984, so the US economy is currently expanding at a rapid pace. This aligns well with estimates that the US economy by Q4 will operate well above its GDP potential which at that point will add further to inflationary pressures. The current macro indicators on the US economy also suggest that we will get a very strong Q2 earnings season which starts in three weeks from now.

22_PG_4

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.