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Daily Insights M

Video: US CPI falls to its slowest pace in a year supporting a Fed downshift. Commodities remain bullish

Jessica Amir
Market Strategist

Summary:  In today video; CPI falls in line with expectation, supporting a downshift in Fed hikes. The Nasdaq 100 rallies for the 5th day in a row. Ahead of Australia’s company reporting season kicking off next month, we think we could likely see many commodities companies upgrade their outlooks for 2023, expecting higher earnings as many resources prices have quickly entered bull markets amid China easing restrictions sooner than expected. In Australia and Asia today focus is on risk-on assets, Oil, Iron Ore and Copper charging. In FX watch; the Australian dollar is on the heels of 0.70 US. What is next?

Friday January 12 2023

CPI falls in line with expectation, supporting a downshift in Fed hikes, Nasdaq 100 rallies for 5th day

A Fed downshift looks to be on the cards with consumer prices rising 6.5% in the 12 months through December, which is the slowest pace in a year. While the core number (which the Fed looks at) showed price growth slowed to 5.7% yearly. Month-on-month though, CPI fell 0.1%, while core rose 0.3%. All the results matched expectations. As a result, US stocks posted gained, bond yields slumped. The Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) rose for the fifth session, up 0.5%, closing above its 50 day moving average for the first time since November. When the index crossed above the 50DMA in November the Nasdaq rallied 5% to a new high, before turning lower. However this time, could things be more evidence has been coming in of a US soft landing. US jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 205,000 from a revised 206,000 the previous week, while continuing claims also surprisingly improved

In Australia and Asia today focus is on; risk-on assets, Oil, Iron Ore and Copper charging

The Australian share market (ASXSP200.I) opened 0.8% higher, with most other Asian markets to open in the positive (according to their futures). Ahead of Australia’s company reporting season kicking off next month, we’re thinking we could likely see many commodities companies upgrade their outlooks for 2023, expecting higher earnings as many resources prices have quickly entered bull markets amid China easing restrictions sooner than expected. However today, eyes will once again be on commodities and affiliated equites; as the Oil price jumped for the 6th day, moving up to $78.30, after rising 1.1%, The Copper price rose 0.1% to $4.17 on the Comex market in New York, Iron ore (SCOA) is 0.6% up at $123, a new 6-month high.

FX watch; Australian dollar is on the heels of 0.70 US

After US CPI data showed US prices have continued to fall, the US dollar vs the AUD continued to fall, taking its fall from its peak to 10%. Inversely, Australia's trade balance data released yesterday, as well as Aussie retail and Aussie CPI earlier in the week, plus the all-important easing of China’s restrictions sooner than expected, all support upside in the AUD. As such the Aussie versus the US rallied to new four-month highs, 69.67 US. The next resistance level, the psychological 70.00 US is the next hurdle to get over. Aussie home loan data released today is the next catalyst to watch. If it’s stronger than expected, the AUDUSD could march on up.

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