Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
Saxo Group
Read Saxo's Outrageous Predictions for 2026, our latest batch of low probability, but high impact ev...
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
COT reports covering week to January 22
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: Weekly data compiled in the Commitments of Traders report remain delayed due to the 35 days partial shutdown of the US government between December 22 and January 25. The CFTC will be rolling out figures twice a week and should catch up by March 5. The latest available data, presented here, covers the week to January 22.
Commodities:
Please note that Brent and gas oil show data from the week to February 12.
Please note that Brent and gas oil show data from the week to February 12.
In Brent crude oil speculators increased bullish bets by 32,062 lots to 266,057 lots, a 15-week high. Short-covering during December and January has now been replaced by a noticeable pick-up in fresh buying.
Forex:
With one week to go before the post January 30 Federal Open Market Committee meeting-inspired dollar rally, the speculative dollar long against eight IMM currency futures had dropped to $22 billion, a six-month low. The change was driven by a four-week JPY buying spree before and not least after the January 3 flash crash. During this time the JPY net-short was cut by 60% to 40,000 lots.
With one week to go before the post January 30 Federal Open Market Committee meeting-inspired dollar rally, the speculative dollar long against eight IMM currency futures had dropped to $22 billion, a six-month low. The change was driven by a four-week JPY buying spree before and not least after the January 3 flash crash. During this time the JPY net-short was cut by 60% to 40,000 lots.
Bonds:
The COT report on bond futures in the week to January 22 showed how leveraged funds continued to increase what was already a record short position across the US yield curve. Especially the position in Ultra Long Term Bonds showed the continued divide between leveraged funds selling on one hand and asset managers buying on the other.
The COT report on bond futures in the week to January 22 showed how leveraged funds continued to increase what was already a record short position across the US yield curve. Especially the position in Ultra Long Term Bonds showed the continued divide between leveraged funds selling on one hand and asset managers buying on the other.
What is the Commitments of Traders report?
The Commitments of Traders (COT) report is issued by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) every Friday at 15:30 EST with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. The report breaks down the open interest across major futures markets from bonds, stock index, currencies and commodities. The ICE Futures Europe Exchange issues a similar report, also on Fridays, covering Brent crude oil and gas oil.
In commodities, the open interest is broken into the following categories: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User; Swap Dealers; Managed Money and other.
In financials the categories are Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Managed Money and other.
Our focus is primarily on the behaviour of Managed Money traders such as commodity trading advisors (CTA), commodity pool operators (CPO), and unregistered funds.
They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged. This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments. It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming.
The Commitments of Traders (COT) report is issued by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) every Friday at 15:30 EST with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. The report breaks down the open interest across major futures markets from bonds, stock index, currencies and commodities. The ICE Futures Europe Exchange issues a similar report, also on Fridays, covering Brent crude oil and gas oil.
In commodities, the open interest is broken into the following categories: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User; Swap Dealers; Managed Money and other.
In financials the categories are Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Managed Money and other.
Our focus is primarily on the behaviour of Managed Money traders such as commodity trading advisors (CTA), commodity pool operators (CPO), and unregistered funds.
They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged. This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments. It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming.
Latest Market Insights
Outrageous Predictions 2026
-
-
Outrageous Predictions
A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Can AI be trusted to take over in the boardroom? With the right algorithms and balanced human oversi... -
Outrageous Predictions
Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
In spite of outstanding threats to the American democratic process, the US midterms come and go cord... -
Outrageous Predictions
Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Beijing does an end-run around the US dollar, setting up a framework for settling trade in a neutral... -
Outrageous Predictions
Obesity drugs for everyone – even for pets
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
The availability of GLP-1 drugs in pill form makes them ubiquitous, shrinking waistlines, even for p... -
Outrageous Predictions
Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Agentic AI systems are deployed across all sectors, and after a solid start, mistakes trigger a tril... -
Outrageous Predictions
Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
A quantum computer cracks today’s digital security, bringing enough chaos with it that Bitcoin crash... -
Outrageous Predictions
SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Financial markets go into orbit, to the moon and beyond as SpaceX expands rocket launches by orders-... -
Outrageous Predictions
Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Next year’s most anticipated wedding inspires Gen Z to drop the doomscrolling and dial up the real w... -
Outrageous Predictions
China unleashes CNY 50 trillion stimulus to reflate its economy
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Having created history’s most epic debt bubble, China boldly bets that fiscal stimulus to the tune o...