Outrageous Predictions
Révolution Verte en Suisse : un projet de CHF 30 milliards d’ici 2050
Katrin Wagner
Head of Investment Content Switzerland
Investment and Options Strategist
Résumé: Gold’s sharp pullback has reignited the debate between selling, holding, or adding exposure. This article explores an alternative way investors sometimes think about staying invested while keeping downside risk clearly defined.
After a strong multi-month rally, gold experienced a sudden and violent pullback. Episodes like this often leave investors in an uncomfortable middle ground: selling everything can feel premature, but adding or holding shares with open-ended downside can feel equally unsatisfying.
This article introduces one practical tool long-term investors sometimes use in such situations. It is not about predicting the next move in gold. It is about understanding how long-dated options can help structure exposure when risk control becomes more important than precision.
Despite the sharp sell-off, GLD remains above its longer-term trend measures on both daily and weekly charts. That does not guarantee anything about the next move, but it helps explain why many investors still view the broader trend as constructive rather than broken.
LEAPS (long-term equity anticipation securities) are listed options with more than one year to expiry. They work like standard options, just over a longer timeframe.
A LEAPS call gives you the right, but not the obligation, to buy 100 shares of GLD at a fixed price (the strike) up to expiration. You pay a premium upfront. If the option finishes out of the money at expiry (for a call: GLD is below the strike), it expires worthless and the loss is limited to the premium paid.
This article focuses on calls, as they are commonly used by investors to express a constructive long-term view with defined downside.
Long-dated calls are typically considered for three investor-oriented reasons.
The trade-off is that options introduce time and volatility sensitivity that shares do not have.
Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it's crucial to make informed decisions.
A worked example from the current GLD chainTo make this concrete, the screenshots below show one long-dated GLD call. This is a worked example used to explain mechanics, not a suggestion.
Because one contract represents 100 shares, a price of 66 corresponds to about 6,600 USD premium paid. That amount is the maximum loss if the option is held to expiry and finishes out of the money.
At expiry, the breakeven level is the strike plus the premium paid. Using the numbers above, that is around 466.
You do not need to master option theory to follow the logic, but three concepts are worth understanding.
Outcomes at expiry are clean and intuitive. The path before expiry is not.
Even if GLD eventually rises, a long-dated call can be uncomfortable to hold during extended sideways periods or renewed volatility. That does not make the idea wrong, but it means position size matters.
A useful self-check is simple: if the premium were marked down materially for several months, would you still be comfortable holding it as the cost of staying exposed.
There is no single “best” LEAPS contract.
Longer expiries give the thesis more time to work, but cost more. Lower strikes behave more like shares, but require higher premiums. Higher strikes are cheaper, but more dependent on a strong move.
These are trade-offs, not optimisations.
Long-dated calls are conservative relative to many option strategies, but they are still options.
LEAPS on GLD are best viewed as a risk budgeting tool, not a forecasting tool. They can help investors stay exposed after a sharp pullback while keeping downside explicit.
As with any option, the discipline lies less in choosing the “right” contract and more in sizing it appropriately and understanding what you are paying for.
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