Market Quick Take – 30 September 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: Wall Street eked out gains despite shutdown risks; Europe advanced on pharma strength; Asia split as Hong Kong rebounded while Japan slipped, with Tuesday trade cautious.
• Volatility: VIX closed near 15.8 while Treasury vol held at 75, as investors weigh a possible U.S. shutdown and a heavy data week.
• Digital Assets: Bitcoin steadies near USD 112,000 and ether above USD 4,100, supported by over USD 1bn in combined ETF inflows.
• Currencies: JPY firms further, AUD jumps post-RBA
• Commodities: Another day, another gold record. Crude drops on glut concerns
• Fixed Income: Japan 2-year yield hits cycle high on weak auction.
• Macro events: US Aug. JOLTS Job Openings, US Sep. Consumer Confidence 

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Macro headlines

• Equities: Wall Street eked out gains despite shutdown risks; Europe advanced on pharma strength; Asia split as Hong Kong rebounded while Japan slipped, with Tuesday trade cautious.
• Volatility: VIX closed near 15.8 while Treasury vol held at 75, as investors weigh a possible U.S. shutdown and a heavy data week.
• Digital Assets: Bitcoin steadies near USD 112,000 and ether above USD 4,100, supported by over USD 1bn in combined ETF inflows.
• Currencies: JPY firms further, AUD jumps post-RBA
• Commodities: Another day, another gold record. Crude drops on glut concerns
• Fixed Income: Japan 2-year yield hits cycle high on weak auction.
• Macro events: US Aug. JOLTS Job Openings, US Sep. Consumer Confidence

Macro headlines

• Australia’s Reserve Bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.60% as widely expected and said that inflation is likely to come in higher than expected previously, throwing into doubt the likelihood of a rate reduction at the November meeting. Australian yields and the Australian dollar rose in the wake of the statement release with Governor Bullock out speaking this morning.
• In August 2025, U.S. pending home sales surged 4% from the previous month, erasing back-to-back declines, with increases in the West (5%), Midwest (8.7%), South (3.1%), and Northeast (1.1%). NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun attributed the rebound to lower mortgage rates boosting buyer activity. Sales also rose 3.8% compared to the previous year.
• BoJ board members discussed the potential for raising interest rates soon, with one suggesting it might be a suitable time.
• Japan's retail sales in August 2025 fell by 1.1% year-on-year, marking the first decline since February 2022 and missing the expected 1% increase. Declines were seen in automobiles, non-store retailers, fuel, and department stores, while other categories like machinery, pharmaceuticals, and textiles saw gains. Monthly sales also dropped by 1.1%.
• After a meeting between US President Trump and congressional leaders from both parties at the White House, Vice President JD Vance said he believes the US government is on track to shut down on Wednesday. A shutdown would delay release of key economic indicators like Friday's nonfarm payroll report, and create uncertainty about Federal Reserve rate-cut decisions, and at least temporarily furlough hundreds of thousands of federal workers
• China’s official manufacturing PMI was 49.8, versus 49.4 in August, and the non-manufacturing measure of activity fell for sixth month to 50 from 50.3, highlighting the risk of an economic slowdown into the final months of 2025 driven by subdued domestic demand and tariff related risks for exporters.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

September CPI from France (0645), Italy (0900), and Germany (1200)
0755 – Germany Sep. Unemployment Change / Rate
1300 – US Jul. Home Price Index
1345 – US Sep. Chicago PMI
1400 – US Aug. JOLTS Job Openings
1400 – US Sep. Consumer Confidence
1500 – Trump will make announcement in Oval Office
2350 – Japan Q3 Tankan Surveys

Earnings events

• Today: Nike, Paychex
• Thursday: Tesco PLC

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.3%, the Nasdaq 100 0.4% and the Dow 0.1%, as investors looked past shutdown brinkmanship even while a potential delay to Friday’s payrolls report clouded the Fed path. Treasury yields eased and gold hit a fresh record, signalling a bid for safety as the data vacuum looms. Headlines featured Electronic Arts (+4.5%) agreeing to a record LBO and Jefferies flagging record quarterly revenue, while Boeing was reported to be sketching a 737 MAX successor—adding stock-specific catalysts to a session otherwise driven by macro. Focus turns to JOLTS today and whether a shutdown pushes key releases off the tape.
• Europe: The Stoxx 600 closed 0.2% higher, led by healthcare as multiple large-caps rallied on stock-specific news. UCB jumped 16.7% after its Bimzelx skin treatment beat rivals in Phase 3 trials, GSK gained 2.3% after naming Luke Miels as incoming CEO, and AstraZeneca added 0.8% after confirming a dual listing in New York while keeping London. Airlines and industrials were mixed: Lufthansa pared gains after long-term targets and headcount cuts, while Denmark’s Genmab slipped 0.5% on a planned USD 8bn Merus acquisition. Shutdown risk in the U.S. and firmer Spain CPI (3.0%) framed the macro backdrop.
• Asia: Asia opened the week split, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up 1.9% to 26,322 on policy optimism and stronger Chinese industrial profits, while Japan’s Topix fell 0.2% as ex-dividend flows and auto weakness weighed; Tokyo breadth skewed negative. Mainland China benchmarks posted modest gains as investors digested incremental support signals. In Tuesday trading, sentiment has turned cautious. Asian equities are mostly flat as shutdown risk in the U.S. and a record gold price dominate headlines. Hong Kong is slightly weaker, Japan is flat to modestly higher, and mainland China is little changed ahead of Golden Week closures. 

Volatility

• Market volatility stayed muted into quarter-end, with the VIX at 15.8 and MOVE around 75. Wall Street’s rebound calmed nerves, but shutdown risks and this week’s data calendar (Consumer Confidence today, ISM tomorrow, jobs Friday) remain swing factors. Options pricing signals a ±36-point (~0.5%) daily range for the S&P 500. Any shutdown-driven delays to economic releases could unsettle sentiment.

Digital Assets

• Crypto trades steady as U.S. ETF flows improve tone. Spot bitcoin ETFs took in about USD 518m Monday, led by USD 298.7m into IBIT, while ether products drew USD 546.9m, with USD 154.2m into ETHA. That pushed combined crypto ETF inflows above USD 1bn in a single day, underscoring robust institutional demand. Bitcoin holds near USD 112,000, ether above USD 4,100, and majors like Solana and XRP edge higher.

Fixed Income

• US treasury yields dipped slightly all along the curve yesterday ahead of a possible US government shutdown, with most focus on the benchmark 10-year treasury yield, which late last week rose to the key resistance, the old range low of 4.20%.
• Japan’s government bond yields rose at the short end of the yield curve on a the weakest sale of 2-year Japanese Government Bonds since 2009, with the benchmark 2-year JGB yield rising over a basis point and reaching a new cycle high of 0.947%. The benchmark 10-year JGB yield rose about a basis point to 1.65%, still two basis points shy of the all time highs. 

Commodities   

• Gold trades at a fresh record near USD 3,870, on track for an 11% gain this month, with demand for bullion-backed ETFs seeing the strongest monthly inflow since March 2022 of 107 tons, supported by lower funding costs as the Fed cuts rates, geopolitical tensions, fresh dollar weakness, and the risk of a US shutdown. Traders focus on USD 4,000 as the next major level.
• Silver and platinum remain the standout performers this month, up 17% and 19%, respectively, hitting multi-year highs amid tailwinds from an ongoing gold rush, tight supply, and—until now—their relative cheapness to bullion.
• Crude oil trades lower for a second session, after Brent met resistance above USD 70 last week, and as attention returns to the OPEC+ alliance, who will meet this Sunday and potentially agree on another, albeit modest, output increase for November that nevertheless will add to concerns about a major glut emerging next year.

Currencies

• The US dollar traded mostly sideways ahead of a possible US government shutdown. USDJPY dropped back below 148.50 overnight and thus tested below its 200-day moving average that it had just broken above last week. EURUSD traded with little volatility around 1.1725.
• The Australian dollar got a boost from the RBA meeting overnight, as the policy statement raised concerns that inflation would fall back less than previously thought, which saw expectations fading for a November rate cut. AUDUSD rose back above 0.6600 and AUDNZD posted a new three year high above 1.1400, with the late 2022 high of 1.1491 representing the highest level since late 2013.