Market Quick Take – 11 August 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: Tech rally; Apple jumps; CPI/PPI ahead; Cisco, Applied Materials, Deere earnings
• Volatility: VIX near 15; calm but data could spark moves; SPX ±39pts today
• Digital assets: BTC/ETH higher; Ether ETF inflows strong; crypto stocks mixed
• Fixed Income: US treasury yields continued their crawl higher ahead of tomorrow’s US CPI data
• Currencies: USD dips in Asian session to start the week
• Commodities: Confusion reigns in the gold market, lithium jumps and oil drops on potential peace dividend
• Macro events: RBA Meeting

Macro headlines

• Nvidia and AMD have reached a groundbreaking agreement to share 15% of revenue from specific chip sales in China with the U.S. government in return for export licenses for Nvidia’s H20 and AMD’s MI308 chips, as reported by the Financial Times.
• U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin will meet in Alaska on August 15 to discuss the Ukraine conflict. Trump announced the meeting, and the Kremlin approved of the location due to its proximity to Russia. Plans remain flexible, with a possibility of Ukraine's President Zelensky joining.
• China's consumer prices held steady in July 2025, exceeding the forecasted 0.1% drop. Non-food prices rose, aided by consumer goods subsidies, with increases in housing, clothing, healthcare, and education sectors. Food prices fell sharply by 1.6%, while transport costs decreased at a slower rate.
• The FAO Food Price Index increased by 1.6% to 130.1 points in July 2025, the highest since February 2023, due to higher meat and vegetable oil prices. It's 7.6% above July 2024 levels but 18.8% below its March 2022 peak. Meat and vegetable oil prices reached record highs, offsetting declines in other categories.
• Canada lost 41,000 jobs in July, defying forecasts of a 13,500 gain, and maintained a 6.9% unemployment rate, prompting concerns over domestic demand. Trump's 35% aluminum tariff and possible auto-parts duties add pressure on the economy.
• Lithium prices and related equities spiked after battery giant CATL Ltd. halted operations for at least three months at a major mine in China that accounts for around 6% of global output, spurring speculation that Beijing might move to suspend other projects as it tackles overcapacity across the economy.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

Japan markets closed
0600 – Norway July CPI

Earnings events

Note: earnings announcement dates can change with little notice. Consult other sources to confirm earnings releases as they approach.

• Tuesday: Coreweave, Cardinal Health
• Wednesday: Cisco Systems, E.on
• Thursday: Applied Materials, Deere & Company, Hon Hai Precision, Nu Holdings, Adyen, Swiss Re, Ross Stores

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• US: Wall Street finished Friday on a positive note. The S&P 500 gained 0.8%, the Nasdaq rose almost 1% to another record, and the Dow added 206 points. Tech was in the spotlight after Apple (AAPL +4.2%) unveiled a huge US investment plan. Hopes for a September Fed rate cut added to the upbeat mood. Gilead and Monster jumped on strong earnings, while Tesla edged higher despite changes to its AI team. This week’s big events are CPI on Tuesday and PPI on Thursday, with earnings from Cisco, Applied Materials, and Deere.
• Europe: European markets also ended the week on a high. The STOXX 50 rose 0.4%, and the STOXX 600 gained 0.3%. Banks like BBVA and BNP led the way, and carmakers Volkswagen, Mercedes, and Stellantis also moved higher. Munich Re slipped after cutting its guidance, while Siemens clawed back earlier losses. Traders are now watching the US–China tariff truce deadline and the last few earnings releases.
• UK: The FTSE 100 barely moved on Friday but still managed a small weekly gain after the Bank of England cut rates. RELX and WPP struggled, while Glencore, Antofagasta, and Rio Tinto benefited from higher metals prices. This week brings UK jobs data on Tuesday, followed by GDP, trade, and production numbers on Thursday—potential market movers for UK shares.
• Asia: Asian markets were mixed as investors waited for the August 12 US–China tariff truce deadline. Mainland China saw gains in liquor and AI-related stocks, while Hong Kong was flat and SMIC fell on weak results. Australia’s ASX 200 hit a record high ahead of an expected rate cut from the RBA. Later this week, all eyes will be on earnings from Tencent, Alibaba, JD.com, and Meituan.

Volatility

• Market volatility stayed low heading into a week packed with data. The VIX closed at 15.15, with short-term measures also calm. Hedging costs are low, but Tuesday’s CPI and Thursday’s PPI could change that quickly. For today, options suggest the S&P 500 could move about ±39 points (~±0.6%), with the weekly range near ±78 points (~±1.22%).

Digital Assets

• Cryptocurrencies started the week on a strong note. Bitcoin traded near $121,900 and Ethereum around $4,310. Solana and XRP also edged higher. Ether ETFs, led by ETHA, saw strong inflows, while Bitcoin ETF flows turned positive, though IBIT was softer today. Crypto-related stocks were mixed—Coinbase gained, but MicroStrategy, Marathon, Riot, Cleanspark, and Cipher slipped. The key question now is whether the ETF inflows will keep up as big macro data approaches.

Fixed Income

• US Treasury yields continued their crawl back higher on Friday all along the yield curve (after the previous Friday’s July jobs report crushed yields lower). The two-year yield starts the week just above 3.75%, off last week’s low of 3.66%, while the 10-year benchmark yield is near 4.28%, about 10 basis points above last week’s low. Key US data this week includes the July CPI report tomorrow and July Retail Sales on Friday.
• The benchmark 10-year German Bund yield rose sharply on Friday to 2.69%, up from the low last week of 2.6%, a day after reporting very weak Industrial Production figures for June.

Commodities

• Crude prices fell further after losing around 5% last week, with focus on rising supply as OPEC+ continues to bring back production faster than previously planned, and before a meeting on Friday between Putin and Trump that may ease sanctions on Russia. In addition, the potential negative tariff impact on global demand continues to be watched closely.
• Gold trades lower, led by the New York futures price, as traders await clarification from the White House over its tariff policy. Confusion reigned on Friday after a government agency stunned the market by formally ruling that COMEX-accepted sized bars would be subject to tariffs. Besides the clarification, traders will be watching Tuesday’s US inflation print with XAUUSD still stuck in a relatively tight range.
• Lithium, mostly traded in China, jumped overnight following the CATL mine closure (see above), but at prices around CNY 80,000 a ton, it remains well below the 2022 peak around CNY 600,000.

Currencies

• The US dollar remains weak after a modest strengthening move Friday, dropping slightly overnight to start the week in Asia as EURUSD rose back toward 1.1670 after a 1.1699 high last week and after closing Friday at 1.1640. The US reports July CPI data tomorrow.
• The Australian dollar trades mid-range versus the US dollar ahead of Tuesday’s RBA meeting, which is expected to bring a 25 basis point rate reduction to take the rate to 3.60% after no move at the prior meeting. The RBA has established a pattern of easing policy at every other meeting and the market expects this pattern will continue through at least the February meeting of next year, bringing 50 basis points of further easing after the presumed cut at Tuesday’s meeting.

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