Market Quick Take – 10 October 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: US slipped as shutdown delays data and focus turns to earnings; Europe mixed with DAX at record while banks dragged the STOXX; Asia split as China rallied on rare-earth controls and Hong Kong fell on HSBC’s Hang Seng bid.
• Volatility: VIX steady. Dispersion high. Powell cautious. Earnings season risk builds.
• Digital assets: BTC steady; ETH weak; IBIT/ETHA dip; Luxembourg buys BTC ETFs.
• Currencies: JPY finds broad support overnight after recent notable weakness.
• Commodities: Silver tops USD 50 for the first time in 45 years. BCOM near highest weekly close in three years.
• Fixed Income: Treasury yields rangebound, High yield credit spread see biggest spike in over a month on weak risk sentiment.
• Macro events: US Oct University of Michigan Sentiment

Macro headlines

• US President Trump said he would travel to Israel after Israel said it would sign an agreement with Hamas that would release 2,000 prisoners in exchange for the last Israeli hostages.
• The US and Finland have agreed to build eleven icebreakers together, with four to be built in Finland and seven in the US with the aid of Finish expertise, a move seen as a geostrategic commitment to security in the Arctic region.
• Japan’s producer prices rose 2.7% year-on-year in September 2025, matching August's pace but exceeding the forecast of 2.5%. Costs increased for most components while falling for chemicals, iron and steel, and petroleum. Month-on-month, producer prices increased by 0.3%, reversing August's 0.2% decline and topping the 0.1% forecast.
• ECB officials agreed the current policy supports the 2% inflation target. Views on inflation risks varied, but interest rates are seen as sufficient to handle potential shocks. The euro area economy is strong but faces growth risks, including geopolitical tensions. The ECB cut rates by 200 bps from June 2024 to June 2025, pausing after hitting the target. Rates are expected to remain steady, with possible tightening in late 2026.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

US Government data are impacted by shutdowns and are likely to be delayed
1230 – Canada Unemployment Rate
1400 – US Oct University of Michigan Sentiment

Earnings events

Next week:

• Monday: Fastenal
• Tuesday: JP Morgan, Johnson & Johnson, Louis Vuitton, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Blackrock, Citigroup
• Wednesday: ASML, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Abbott Laboratories, Rio Tinto, Progressive
• Thursday: TSMC, Charles Schwab, Interactive Brokers, Nestle, ABB, Essilor Luxottica,
• Friday: American Express, Reliance Industries, Volvo

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: S&P 500 −0.3%, Nasdaq 100 −0.1%, Dow −0.5% as shutdown-related data gaps and earnings positioning trimmed risk. PepsiCo +4.2% after a solid print and outlook, while Costco +3.1% on stronger September sales. Nvidia +1.8% extended AI momentum as investors stuck with winners, while Apple −1.6% eased with mega-cap tech broadly softer. With official releases curtailed, the tape keys off company guides as Q3 reports ramp next week.
• Europe: Euro Stoxx 50 −0.4% and STOXX 600 −0.4%, while the DAX set a fresh record and finished +0.1% as materials outperformed despite weak German trade data. Banks weighed: HSBC −5.2% after proposing a $13.6bn buyout of Hang Seng Bank and pausing buybacks; Lloyds −3.2% on ongoing UK motor finance overhang. Offsetting, Heidelberg Materials +2.9% on cement strength and pricing, and Bayer +2.8% after early-stage Parkinson’s therapy news. FTSE 100 −0.4% with financials heavy.
• Asia: Regional tone diverged. Nikkei 225 +1.8% to a record as domestic tech and SoftBank support persisted. Shanghai Composite +1.3% to 3,934 after Golden Week, with miners jumping as Beijing tightened rare-earth export controls; China Northern Rare Earth +10.0% and Zijin Mining +10.0%. Hang Seng −0.3% to 26,753 as HSBC’s plan to privatise Hang Seng Bank dominated flows: Hang Seng Bank +26.1% on the offer, while HSBC −5.5% in Hong Kong as capital and buyback pause hit sentiment.

Volatility

• The VIX rose slightly to 16.43 (+0.80%), while VIX1D jumped over 13%, signaling elevated demand for short-term hedges. Despite the move, volatility at the index level remains contained, even as individual stocks show increased dispersion. The CBOE Dispersion Index remains near 36, reflecting significant divergence between sector winners and losers. Market anxiety persists around earnings season kickoff, Fed speeches, and U.S. shutdown data delays. Powell’s comments were non-committal, offering no relief. SKEW remains low, suggesting reduced demand for downside protection.
• Expected SPX move today is ±27 points (~0.4%), reflecting cautious calm ahead of major earnings and CPI next week.

Digital Assets

• Crypto markets are consolidating after a strong rally. Bitcoin hovers above $121,700, holding ground despite political noise. Ethereum retreated to $4,373 (–0.9%) while altcoins were mixed. IBIT and ETHA slipped 1.9% and 3.8%, respectively, despite strong ETF inflows earlier this week.
• Attention turned to Luxembourg’s sovereign wealth fund allocating 1% of its portfolio to Bitcoin ETFs—marking the first such move in Europe. This institutional signal could accelerate broader regional interest.
• On the policy front, U.S. Senate Democrats proposed new restrictions on DeFi, prompting backlash from the crypto community. Roger Ver reportedly reached a tax settlement with the DOJ.

Fixed Income

• US treasury yields chopped around in a narrow range, with long yields edging slightly higher during yesterday’s session before easing back lower overnight. A US Treasury auction of 30-year T-bonds saw solid demand in range with recent prior auctions.
• US high yield bond spreads widened sharply amidst weak risk sentiment yesterday, with the Bloomberg measure of the spread between high yield debt and US treasury yields widening nine basis points to 282 basis points, the widest since August.

Commodities

• Gold dipped back below USD 4,000 following another turbulent session that saw silver briefly break above USD 50 for the first time since 1980, before slumping 5.4%. Prices stabilised during the Asian session with gold at USD 3,976 and silver at USD 49.6. Overbought technicals have left both metals vulnerable after a torrid four-day surge, and the coming days will show whether USD 50 once again proves a major ceiling. Much depends on whether gold still has more upside before a long-overdue consolidation—or even a correction—sets in. Silver is no longer cheap relative to gold, with the gold–silver ratio trading below its ten-year average near 81. Platinum and palladium also eased.
• Oil steadied near recent lows, holding the week’s sharpest drop amid cautious optimism over easing Middle East tensions and improved supply prospects. WTI traded below USD 62 after Thursday’s 1.7% fall, while Brent hovered near USD 65. Israel’s approval of a peace framework, including hostage and prisoner exchanges, supported sentiment.
• The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index is heading for a modest weekly gain and its highest close in three years, up 10.6% year to date. Broad strength in both precious and industrial metals helped offset small losses across energy and agriculture.

Currencies

• The Japanese yen finally found some support overnight, in part after LDP leader and coming PM Takaichi pushed back against the idea she is in favor of a weaker JPY, USDJPY peaked out at 153.27 before rolling over, trading near 152.80 this morning.
• The US dollar was broadly stronger yesterday before easing off the accelerator overnight, with EURUSD breaking well below 1.1600 and posting a more than two-month low at 1.1542 yesterday before rebounding to the 1.1575 area in early European trading today (near the prior range low). GBPUSD broke the prior range low of 1.3324 and traded as low as 1.3280 before bouncing back above 1.3300 overnight.
• China continues to support its currency as USDCNH dipped back below 7.13 in late Asian trading after a surprisingly strong CNH fix and despite the generally strong US dollar.

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