Lion Global Dynamic Growth USD Q4 2022 commentary
| Asset classes | Stocks (developed and emerging markets), bonds (investment grade and high yield) and commodities |
| Instruments traded | ETFs and mutual funds |
| Investment style | Bottom-up research and selection of best-in-class ETFs and mutual funds |
| Quarterly return | 9.31% (net of fees) |
| Annualised volatility (since inception) | 10% |
Market overview
Global equity markets rallied 2.4 percent (in SGD terms) in the fourth quarter of 2022 as markets welcomed a slowdown in inflation, a robust job market and weakness in the USD currency. Rising hopes of a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) also boosted investor sentiment as Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated the central bank might start scaling back the pace of rate changes. Major central banks across the world eased off on a rate hike push in November 2022.
US equities (S&P 500) posted flat performance in the fourth quarter of 2022 while MSCI Europe rallied 11.5 percent (in SGD terms) as the EUR appreciated against USD and other currencies. Other regions like Japan, Asia ex-Japan and China equities also posted good performance during the quarter. Asia Pacific ex-Japan equities gained on signs of easing monetary tightening measures and stabilising global interest rates. However, a resurgence in COVID-19 cases in China partially offset such gains.
Portfolio performance (net of fees)*
| October | 1.37% |
| November | 8.53% |
| December | -0.63% |
| Since inception (Jan 2016) | 66.38% |
Investment performance of the managed portfolio reflected for the period prior to the launch on 25 February 2021 is simulated past performance, based on back-tested performance of portfolio components. For more detailed information, see full disclosure in the disclaimer section of the commentary.
Portfolio allocation (as of 31 December 2022)
Outlook
The risk to growth is skewed to the downside in 2023 as the full effects of policy tightening by central banks will come to the force. Recession probability continues to rise in Europe and USA, while policy flexibility in markets such as China and Asia may mitigate a slowdown.
In the US, consumer spending has held up well, driven by a robust labour market and excess savings. Although payroll gains are slowing and the unemployment rate has bottomed, labour demand is still outpacing supply. The buffer from excess savings is expected to provide some momentum for consumption in the coming months. On the other hand, manufacturing is slowing, weighed down by weakness in new orders and a build-up in inventories.
In Europe, the economic outlook is likely to worsen in the coming months with contraction coming mostly from weakening domestic demand and uncertain energy supply, while monetary policy is getting tighter to fight a soaring inflation. The winter's outlook for natural gas supply looks less difficult than feared but the European natural gas market is still tight, and prices are likely to remain elevated.
In China, external demand has fluctuated, but domestic consumption should start to recover with the rapid reversal of most COVID-19 restrictions and the announcement of various property market supporting measures. However, the threat of economic disruption remains high as infections are likely to surge, forcing workers to stay home and businesses to run out of supplies. A full recovery of economic activities is unlikely until the second quarter of 2023.
Headline and core goods inflation have peaked with the decline in commodity prices and easing of supply chain constraints. However, core services inflation remains high with labour costs pushing up service sector prices.