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Q3 Outlook: The long road to a global trade war
Quarterly Outlook

Q3 Outlook: The long road to a global trade war

Jacob Pouncey
Cryptocurrency analyst, Saxo Bank

The history of trade liberalisation shows that despite populist rhetoric, eliminating barriers to trade empowers the average citizen. But now, as the US and China take further steps towards a full-blown trade war, investors must position themselves very carefully.

Saxo Bank's Quarterly Outlook for Q2 is here, with expert insights and trading themes from our team of strategists. Get your copy here.

Outrageous Predictions 2023: The War Economy

  • Billionaire coalition creates trillion-dollar Manhattan Project for energy

    The constantly growing global need for energy drives the world's richest to huddle up and launch a R&D project in a size the world hasn't seen since the Manhattan Project gave the US the first atomic bomb.
    Read article

  • French President Macron resigns

    The political stalemate in France and the rise of Marie Le Pen following the 2022 elections corners President Macron, forcing him to give up on politics and resign from his position. At least for now.
    Read article

  • Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandate

    As markets and central banks realise that the idea that inflation is transitory is wrong, and that prices will remain higher for longer, gold is sent through the roof, hitting a price tag of USD 3,000
    Read article

  • EU Army forces EU down path to full union

    With continued challenges in the region and a US military that isn't aggressively enacting its former role as global policeman, the European Union agrees to create its own armed forces, bringing the whole region closer.
    Read article

  • A country agrees to ban all meat production by 2030

    In an effort to become one of the global leaders on the path to net-zero emissions, one country decides to not only put a heavy tax on meat, but to ban domestic production entirely.
    Read article

  • UK holds UnBrexit referendum

    Following a recession and domestic pressure, the United Kingdom is thrown into political turmoil that will end with a vote to wind back Brexit.
    Read article

  • Widespread price controls are introduced to cap official inflation

    History tells us that with the war economy comes rationing and price controls. And this time is no different, as policymakers introduce strict price controls that lead to a range of unintended consequences.
    Read article

  • OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve asset

    Sanctions against Russia have caused widespread turmoil due to US Dollar moves in countries across the globe that don't consider the US an ally. To relieve themselves from this, they leave the IMF and create a new reserve asset.
    Read article

  • USDJPY fixed to the USD at 200 as Japan overhauls financial system

    Following the challenges that faced the Japanese Yen in 2022, the Bank of Japan attempts to keep the currency from sliding. Unsuccessful on the long-term, Japan will launch a reset of its entire financial system.
    Read article

  • Tax haven ban kills private equity

    With the war economy comes an increased focus on national interests and sovereign nations' ability to assert themselves. In that regard, the OECD countries turn their attention on tax havens and pull the big guns out, banning them altogether.
    Read article
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