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Key Stories from the past week: Tariffs on pause - but tensions are not
The implications of “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs & the subsequent uncertainty that came along with them, carried into this week in full force. A global selloff in equity markets & broad risk-off sentiment saw investors looking for safe havens in currencies and gold as the looming recession fears started to amplify & the VIX briefly exceeded 60. Equity Index moves included some of the largest seen in years, with Nasdaq closing a day up +12% & a heavy selloff in US treasuries saw 10yr yields surge 50bps in a significant move – which may have contributed to the US pulling the brakes on some tariffs in a 90-day pause announcement. Read more in this week’s key stories below: Tariff pause brings relief rally Treasury dump Investors seek shelter in currencies Big Pharma face targeted tariffs Next week we expect that tariff announcements and geopolitical developments will once again dominate. Scheduled earnings releases include Goldman Sachs (Mon), Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America, Citigroup (Tues), ASML, Abbott Laboratories (Weds), Taiwan Semiconductor, UnitedHealth, Netflix, American Express (Thurs). Focus will be as much on guidance and commentary around tariffs as much as the Q1 results. Key economic data to watch for are German Apr ZEW (Tues), China Q1 GDP, US Mar Retail Sales, Fed Chair Powell speaks (Weds), ECB interest rate decision, Atlanta Fed Q1 GDPNow (Thurs).
US President Trump announced a 90-day pause on higher reciprocal tariffs that were due to hit dozens of trade partners on Wednesday. In a sign of relief US equities posted historic gains with the S&P 500 surging 9.5% and the Nasdaq climbing 12.16%, its best single-day performance since 2001. The overall tariff angst remains unresolved with the bounce looking fragile.
Trump's tariff pause sparks rally
Bonds were the talk of the town this week, as 10-year treasuries spiked 50 basis points in a significant move to 4.5%. While the broader equity market selloff carried into the start of the week, US treasuries suddenly came under heavy selling pressure, which could have been a component of the decision from President Trump to hit pause on the dramatic reciprocal tariff program.
Why are bonds losing appeal in these uncertain times?
The US Dollar retreated for the fourth consecutive session this week as markets sought safe havens in the Euro, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, and Gold. The tariff escalations have led investors to demand higher yields for US debt, as the outlook for the US economy becomes bleaker and the tariff plans remain unclear. The Euro rallied to a three-year high, breaking the 100-month moving average, as German Bunds attracted investors. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen has strengthened for four consecutive months.
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Speaking at a fundraiser dinner for his Republican Party on Tuesday, Trump said: "We're going to be announcing very shortly a major tariff on pharmaceuticals.” a move that could end decades of low-cost global trade in medicines. In 2024, pharmaceuticals were the EU's largest export to the US, worth a reported $127bn (£100bn).
Potential tariffs for Pharma