Asia Market Quick Take – 28 July, 2026

Asia Market Quick Take – 28 July, 2026 

Key points:  

• Macro: US-Iran pauses strikes and in talks 
• Equities: Semiconductors fell; ASML down 8.5% and Nvidia down 5% 
• FX: Dollar recovers after oil-driven dip; focus shifts to Fed, BOJ, yen intervention 
• Commodities: Crude extends steep decline; WTI < $82 
• Fixed income: US Treasury yields drop; 5y breakeven at 52-week low 

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.  

 Macro:  

• Trump said the US is in "good talks" with Iran to end the Middle East conflict, boosting hopes oil flows will normalize. He reportedly paused strikes to allow negotiations, as both sides halted attacks late Friday. Iranian and Omani negotiators also met to seek a deal to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
• UK shop price inflation slowed to 0.9% year-on-year in July 2026, below the 1.2% forecast and June’s 1.2%, the weakest since December 2025. Food inflation eased to 2.2% and non-food to 0.2%. Prices fell 0.1% on the month amid heavy World Cup and summer discounting, though retailers still face rising costs.
• US durable goods orders rose 0.3% in June 2026 to $334.8 billion, rebounding from May’s 4% drop but below the 1.6% forecast. Ex-transportation, orders increased 0.6%. Core capital goods (non-defense ex-aircraft), a key investment gauge, climbed 0.9% after a revised 1.9% gain, driven by strong AI-related and defense spending.
• The Dallas Fed’s Texas manufacturing index edged up to 1.3 in July 2026 from 0, as production and new orders strengthened and the company outlook improved. Employment and hours softened slightly, but wage pressures rose. Prices remained elevated, and firms still expect strong activity over the next six months.

Equities:  

• US: The S&P 500 closed little changed at 7,413.18 on Monday, with the Dow Jones rising 0.5% to 52,210 while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.2% to 24,932. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 2.2% for a third consecutive session — its lowest close since May 19 — dragged by ASML ADRs (-8.5%) on reports a Chinese state-backed firm began mass-producing DUV chipmaking tools, and Nvidia (-5%) amid concerns over $750bn in AI financing deals. Workday (+9%) was the top S&P 500 gainer. After hours, Cadence Design rose ~4.8% on a beat-and-raise, Welltower gained 3.9%, and Universal Health slumped 5.3% on a miss. 
• EU: European equities were broadly positive on Monday, with the DAX rising 1% to 25,361 — its highest since July 7 — led by SAP (+7.9%) following well-received results. The FTSE 100 gained 0.4% to 10,782, a level not seen since February 27, with AstraZeneca and Vodafone (+4.8%) among the top contributors. The Stoxx 600 was little changed at 644.62, as ASML's 8.5% plunge on China DUV news weighed on the tech sector and offset broader gains in retail, media, and healthcare. 
• Asia: Asian markets are under significant pressure this morning. The Kospi opened down 5.3% to 6,400 and has since extended losses to around 5.9%, with Samsung Electronics falling ~6% and SK Hynix plunging over 8% in pre-market trade — the latter now down ~38% from its June all-time high amid a $470bn rout in memory chip stocks. On Monday, the Hang Seng rose 1% to 25,207, led by Xiaomi (+7.3%) and boosted by CATL (+5.4%) on a record buyback announcement and Trip.com (+7.7%) after its antitrust probe concluded. The Nikkei closed up 0.5% to 64,931 on Monday, with the Topix gaining 1.4% to 4,066 as oil's decline lifted sentiment and Sony (+4.8%) led gains; however, Nikkei futures are pointing sharply lower this morning tracking the chip selloff. The STI and broader ASEAN markets were modestly positive on Monday, with the MSCI ASEAN index gaining 0.4%. 

Earnings this week: 

• Tuesday - Visa, Coca-Cola, KLA Corp, Seagate, Boeing, S&P Global, Paypal
• Wednesday - Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Lam Research, Procter & Gamble, ARM Holdings, Qualcomm, Vertiv, Starbucks, SK Hynix, Hermès, L’Oréal, Rio Tinto 
• Thursday - Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, Coinbase, PRADA, Budweiser APAC 
• Friday — ExxonMobil, Moderna, AbbVie, Chevron, Kioxia 

FX: 

• Oil’s sharp drop on Monday after the US paused strikes against Iran initially weighed on the dollar, but the USD later retraced most losses as traders stayed cautious ahead of the Fed’s two-day meeting. 
• EURUSD and GBPUSD both closed near session lows after early USD weakness faded, with sterling also pressured by growing short-GBP positioning before this week’s BoE decision. 
• AUDUSD, the best G10 performer year-to-date (+4.9%), slipped off intraday highs as the rally paused ahead of a speech by RBA Governor Bullock, with markets pricing a high probability of a rate hike by year-end. 
• USDJPY held above 163 near 40-year highs, keeping intervention risk elevated as banks flagged 165 as a potential trigger and warned the upcoming BOJ meeting could disappoint hawks. 
• USDCHF ended higher after reports the SNB may keep rates at zero through end-2027. In EM, the rand led gains while the won underperformed. 
•  The Fed meeting and BOJ decision later this week remain the key FX risk events, with USDJPY in particular under close scrutiny.

Commodities: 

• WTI fell below $82 a barrel and Brent sank to near $88 — its largest single-session drop in more than three months — after President Trump confirmed US-Iran talks are underway and strikes remained paused for a third consecutive night. Macquarie warned oil markets could tilt back into oversupply before year-end if a deal materialises. WTI had traded above $100 as recently as last week. 
• Comex gold settled 0.17% higher at $4,074.50, extending a two-session gain of ~0.7%. Bullion is trading near $4,075 in early Asian hours. The easing of Middle East tensions reduced the inflation-risk premium, but gold remains supported by central bank buying and sovereign debt concerns. CME's debut of 24/7 one-ounce gold futures trading saw nearly 15,000 contracts trade over the inaugural weekend. 
• Comex silver settled 0.31% lower at $58.47, remaining ~49% below its 52-week high of $115.08 hit in January 2026. Silver has recovered ~60% from its July 2025 lows but continues to trade in a wide range as industrial demand signals remain mixed. 

Fixed income:  

• US Treasury yields fell 1.5bp to nearly 4bp across the curve, with the 10-year yield declining to 4.645% — pulling back from the year-to-date peak hit last week. The rally was driven by the oil price slump and easing inflation expectations, with 2-year TIPS breakevens dropping 9bps and the 5-year breakeven hitting a 52-week low.
• The Treasury's $70 billion 5-year note auction drew a yield of 4.408% — 0.9bps above the when-issued yield at the bidding deadline — the highest auction yield since December 2024. Demand fell short of expectations, continuing a pattern of weak 5-year results since October.  
• US corporate bond yields are at their highest level in more than a year, up over 70bps since late February. BofA and JPMorgan recommend staying short 2-year Treasuries, expecting yields to rise further on a hawkish Fed tilt.  

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