Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: The COT report on FX, bonds and stocks positions and changes during the week to April 14 covered the reaction to the Feds additional USD 2.3tn package to support capital markets
Saxo Bank publishes two weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.
The below summary highlights futures positions and changes made by speculators across forex, bonds and stocks up until last Tuesday, April. This period, besides the Easter break, covered the aftermath of the Fed’s additional $2.3tn package to support capital markets. Stocks jumped while the dollar and US 10-year bond yields ticked lower
In forex the selling of dollars extended into a seventh week with the net-short against ten IMM currency futures and the Dollar Index rising by 9% to $9bn. As the table below highlights most currency, despite the Fed bailout news, saw limited changes during a relative quiet Easter holiday period.
The dollar selling was once again primarily driven by euro buying after hedge funds and other large speculators added 7k lots to bring the net-long to 87k ($11.9 bn equivalent), a level not seen since 2018.
Elsewhere light selling was seen in CHF, RUB and not least the Mexican peso which despite rallying witnessed an 11th consecutive week of net selling.
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Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
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Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
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Chris Dembik,
Head of Macroeconomic Research
As the world turns increasingly bipolar, equity markets face harsh times as they transition into the new reality.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
New alliances and collaborations outside of China may lead to prosperous times in Asia.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
For years, it was thought that the balanced portfolio was a thing of the past. But recent developments may have changed that.
Peter Siks,
Investment Coach
Following a dramatic and volatile 2022 with good returns, a lot of this year's commodity performance may be driven by Chinese politics.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
2023 could be a tough year for currencies but EUR and JPY may have some upside.
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy
The commodity-heavy Australian market may have a good start to 2023, as the Chinese focus on growth signals demand for Aussie resources.
Jessica Amir,
Market Strategist
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Mads Eberhardt,
Cryptocurrency Analyst
