FXO Market Update - USD long squeeze
Summary: Risk sentiment improving as Shanghai lockdown easing. USD trades lower and EUR is bid after ECB hints a hike bigger than 25bps is possible. EURUSD trades back up above 1.0500 and we see potential of higher EURUSD if market gets squeezed out of their long dollar positions. Vols trades lower as spot is back up above 1.0500, 1 week is down 2 vol from the opening this week.
Saxo Bank publishes two weekly FX Options Market Update reports covering changes and updates on the FX Options and FX Volatility market. They describe changes in FX volatility levels, risk premium and ideas how to trade based on these.
Risk sentiment stronger across the board with Shanghai lockdown easing and the last days negative price action tops out. Equities are higher and the dollar trades lower. EURUSD trades back up above 1.0500 as ECB hints that hikes bigger than 0.25 is possible. The break down below 1.0500 last week was the event that spurred the last spike in vol. Vols trades offered now when spot is up 200 pips from the low and back up above 1.0500. EURUSD 1 month vol is down 1.2 vol from the opening this week and trades at 9.0. 1 week is down around 2 vols at the same time and trades at 8.25.
Market remains heavy long in USD and there is potential for a position squeeze in dollar if we can hold on to the last days momentum. A squeeze out of the long USD positions could take EURUSD up to 1.0750 quickly.
We like to buy some short dated EURUSD calls and not spend too much premium as spot could also just get stuck between 1.05-1.06 if we don’t get enough momentum.
Buy 1 week 1.0600 EURUSD call
Cost 26 pips
Spot ref.: 1.0535
- The Top/Bottom charts shows the top 5 and bottom 5 values/changes for at-the-money vol, risk reversal (RR) and risk premium of the 45 currency pairs we are tracking.
- Risk premium: Implied (Imp) minus realized volatility. A positive risk premium means implied volatility trades above realized volatility, i.e. the implied volatility can be seen as “rich”.
- Change: The difference between current price/volatility and where it closed 1w ago.
FX Options Trading:
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If you do not own the underlying asset the risk can be unlimited. Only experienced persons should contemplate writing uncovered options, then only after securing full detail of the applicable conditions and potential risk exposure.
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