Summary: Today, we note the flip in US equity market internals while noting what might be driving it ahead of critical Mag7 earnings and as the Nasdaq 100 once again has rallied to a massive resistance area. As well, Japanese yen volatility is only one focus in currencies as the US dollar is heavily on tilt here, while two-way silver volatility has reached almost absurd levels - is that compressing the timeline to at least a temporary top? This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.
The main attraction: Craig Tindale on critical materials, AI and so much more Japanese repatriation to be set in motion by this JPY stabilization? Don’t drink almond milk and don’t eat almonds - at least not almonds from California Meta glasses - why? Technical analysis, the Japanese way. Below a SaxoTrader chart of USDJPY using the Ichimoku technical analysis framework, which includes all kinds of lagging and leading features. Among the interest levels in play right now are the “cloud” which is projected forward based on prior price action. It is considered a notable trend development if the cloud is pierced, and another key trend development if the lagging span, which is just a 26-period lag of the closing price, crosses through the price bars or candlesticks. The latter has already happened, and the cloud is in play on the daily. On the weekly (not shown), the cloud starts down south of 150.00.
This is a must listen on MacroVoices - offers a compelling take on the criticality of critical minerals, but also drops interesting stock names, makes the case that AI is not necessarily a consumer good, but a key military and natural security asset that must be protected. Tindale also has a steady output on his Substack, including his latest on the irrelevance of the former focus on central banking for allocating a nation’s priorities according to the interest rate lever.
A critical question, and not just for Japanese markets - here EndGameMacro responds to a Michael Burry (of The Big Short fame) post on “repatriation pending”.
Almonds are a particularly unsustainable environmental catastrophe, but then again, a lot of avocado production probably is too, and so are grains, and so are the way we produce meat in many cases…ugh - this is why I try not to think of these things too often.
I really don’t get why we need our screens mounted to our faces and why the public would accept everyone running around with a recording device strapped to their face at all times. But some people actually use them and the demand is so strong in the US that Meta is delaying an international launch of Ray Ban versions.
To help out with the chart below, consider the technical analysis system quite well known everywhere, but particularly popular in Japan, Ichimoku kinko hyo, the “one glance equilibrium chart” analysis that provides a rich sense of where the price is relative to trend.Chart of the Day - Ichimoku chart of USDJPY
Outrageous Predictions
Chief Investment Strategist
Outrageous Predictions
Chief Investment Strategist
Outrageous Predictions
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Outrageous Predictions
Investor Content Strategist
Outrageous Predictions
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Outrageous Predictions
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Outrageous Predictions
Saxo Group
Outrageous Predictions
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Outrageous Predictions
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Outrageous Predictions
Chief Investment Strategist