Chief Investment Officer
Summary: The choice of vice president is a safe-bet by Biden but also giving his campaign solid staying power and intellect. Kamala Harris is real person with CV to back it up.
Impact: This is important – More than 90% of all clients I talk to believe Trump will prevail – 90%. The gap between the official polls and the opinion of investors is the largest I have ever seen in my career, leaving the door open for massive “shift” in sentiment as we get closer to election day.
How: Less than 100 days to November election - be long volatility in any product.
Gold: See my piece from yesterday. Gold and all other leveraged markets is harmed by lack of liquidity on the bids, due to massive over-leverage and no cash cushion among investors, making these moves exponentially bigger than they should in orderly and price discovery-driven normal markets. (More on this in the interview I did with CNBC yesterday)
Biden decided on Kamala Harris as his VP – in my non-informed opinion this significantly increase the chances of Biden getting to the White House.
Kamala Harris is as tough as they get. Her background privately and professionally is formed by standing-tall and by being tested - and most important - always coming from behind. She is as real as Trump/Pence and Biden are flaky.
Background - see this behind the person clip from CNN:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2020/08/11/trump-biden-live-updates/
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/11/joe-biden-vp-pick-kamala-harris-393768
https://ig.ft.com/us-election-2020/
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
