Macro Dragon: Social Instability...
Summary: Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.
Macro Dragon: Social Instability...
Top of Mind…
- Folks, in regards to our gold series KVP was half way through The Bulls’ repertoire to The bear… yet something has come up that requires KVP’s complete faculties + focus… intuition so far?… is its BIG! So stay tuned… need to do some more calibrations…
- Bull case for gold will come through over next few Dragons… yet as some of you already know our initial target is a big one… way north of the brilliant folks at ML, who upgraded their new target to $3,000 over 18m – kudos on them calling the move to $1700 right. Here was The Bear case yest: Macro Dragon: Dissecting Gold part I of III - The Bear…
- A few must reads from the dream team SaxoStrats:
- Mechanisms in the ETF market - and possible “surprises” Obviously with everything that has been going on in leveraged etfs & event unlevered etfs… be they in volatility, energy, transport or tourism… Peter Garnry (SaxoStrats’ Equity & Quant Strategist) & Anders Nysteen (SaxoStrats’ COO, CTO & Strat's Resident Propeller Head) put some great work here – comments as always welcome… there are a few ETF & Index specialists in the KVP circle... you know my thoughts on USO
- Latest Chronicles from our CIO & Chief Strategist Steen Jakobsen Steen's Chronicle: welcome back to the 1970s basically think financial repression & +100% tax among other things
- Further touch on equities from Peter G, touching on Netflix, banks & divies (or lack thereof) in Europe… Netflix disappoints; oil collapse puts focus on banks; Europe’s dividend abyss
- Lastly re-flagging the potential inflection point in the Eurozone & Europe, that our Chief Economist Christopher Dembik has been all over… like oil on storage… this should all go down tonight… are EURUSD, EURJPY, EURCHF & the Dax complacent… or rightly priced? EUCO Preview: Make it or break it
- It worth noting the view & sentiment of the greater populous of Italy towards the euro-zone & the euro, is dramatically different today than say a 1yr ago where they have always been consistently pro-euro… the tides are shifting beneath the surface.
- And as always don’t miss our Saxo Market Call – super well received especially through having our Rockstar Ole (The Oil Baron), giving his latest thoughts on the energy space They come out every European morning Mon to Fri – barring public holidays
- ...Econ data wise this wk, its all about today… flash pmi Thu! & of course the jobless claims that no one seems to care about – at least equities – which is astonishing given that we probably get to around 25m jobs lost in just 5wks… remember during the GFC took us 2yrs to get to 10m jobs… same same but diff diff… yes a lot of these jobs will come back… but it will not be on the flick of a light switch & some of these jobs will never come back.
- KVP continues to think the probability of social instability in the US is underpriced – granted it would have to happen in key parts of the country for the market’s to take notice … yet the situation is the US is vastly different from Europe whose government's actually care about the unemployed. The US is likely to learn (to its detriment), which this is going to be aspect to be abreast of... going forward
On The Radar Today…
Flash PMIs (Thu), when + how do we reopen (May-Aug) themed week 17
- US: Flash mfg PMI, Flash Serv. PMI, New Homes Sales, Natural Gas Storage
- EZ: Flash mfg. PMI 38.7a 44.5p, Flash Serv. PMI 23.2a 26.4p
- JP: Flash mfg. PMI 43.7a 44.8p
- UK: Flash mfg. PMI 42.0a 47.8p, Flash Serv. PMI 28.5a 34.5p, CBI Industrial Order Exp.
- AU: Flash mfg. PMI 45.6a 49.7p, Flash Serv. PMI 19.6a 38.5p
- NZ: Credit Card Spending 2.5%p
- CA: CPI 1.75e 1.8%p, CORE 2.%5e 2.1%p
Good luck to everyone out there, be nimble & position accordingly.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook Q3 2022: The Runaway Train
- Central banks' attempts to kill inflation is a paradigm shift, which could end in a deep recession.
Tangible assets and profitable growth are the winnersWith US equities officially in a bear market, the big question is where and when is the bottom in the current drawdown?
Understanding the lack of investment appetite among oil majorsThe everything rally seen in recent quarters has become more uneven, as its strength is driven by commodities in short supply.
The pressure is on as the wind leaves the sailsWith cryptocurrencies in sharp decline, are we entering a crypto winter or is the bear market a healthy clean-up of the crypto space?
Why the Fed can never catch up and what turns the US dollar lower?Many other central banks are set to eventually outpace the Fed in hiking rates, taking their real interest rates to levels higher than the Fed will achieve.
Bank of Japan: Swimming against the tideThe Japanese economy has gone from the age of deflation to rapidly rising prices in no time, leaving the Bank of Japan in a pickle.
Green transformation detour and bear market hibernationWith the impending risk of global econonomic derailment, we share the five things investors need to consider in this new half year.
Crisis redux for the eurozone?Whether there's going to be a recession in Europe or not, the path towards a stable economy will be agonizing.
Technical Outlook: Gold, Oil and a remarkable multi-decade perspective on EquitiesThe Nasdaq bubble pattern, USDJPY resistance, crude oil uptrend losing steam and the technical outlook for USD.
China: the train of new development paradigm left the station two years agoChina is transiting to a new development paradigm, as they are hit by deteriorating terms of trade, a slower global economy and an uncertain future while continuing attempts to contain the pandemic.