Summary: Equity markets traded largely sideways yesterday before sentiment soured a bit again overnight, while crude oil saw wild swings from strength to an ensuing sell-off, as US gasoline demand shows signs in the latest weekly data of dropping off. US Treasury yields perhaps took their signal from the crude oil prices as yields dropped sharply. Today is the last day of the quarter and features the May PCE inflation data out of the US after the CPI data for the month spooked markets a few weeks ago.
US equities are headed lower again erasing most of the recent gains and that is despite no big changes in the VIX Index or higher interest rates. S&P 500 futures are trading around the 3,780 level this morning in European trading hours with the next key level to watch on the downside being 3,761, and on the upside a close above the 3,800 level is critical to stop the current negative sentiment. Today’s initial jobless claims is the most important economic figures to watch as the labour market has weakened in the US over the past two months and this indicator is the best time series we have on the US economy.
June Manufacturing PMI came at 50.2, marginally back to the expansionary territory and below expectations (Bloomberg consensus: 50.50, May: 49.6). At 54.7, non-manufacturing PMI however beat expectations nicely (Bloomberg consensus: 50.5, May: 47.8), with the service sector sub-index at 54.3 and the construction sector sub-index at 56.6, both showing notable improvements from last month. Re-opening of Shanghai and release of pent-up demand contributed significantly to the recovery in the service sector. Yesterday, President Xi reiterated that China’s zero-Covid policy being “correct” and ‘effective. Auto stocks rebounded, with Li Auto (02015) leading the charge, up almost 8%. NIO (09866) rallied 6%, recouping half-of the plunge yesterday following a negative research report. Leading AI software vendor, SenseTime (00020) plunged as much as 51% as the post-IPO lock-up expired.
The DXY index rose above 105 again overnight despite the 10-year Treasury yields dipping below 3.1% yesterday. EURUSD plunged below the tactically pivotal 1.0500 area to lows of 1.0433 as German inflation cooled but Spanish HICP touched 10% levels, coming in above expectations. The lack of an anti-fragmentation tool may limit the ECB to a 25bps rate hike in July, meaning more pressure on EUR – traders should note that the 1.0350 cycle lows is just above the 2017 low of 1.0341, the lowest since 2003. USDJPY touched the key 137 level overnight, printing a new 24-year high, though it retreated slightly into early European trading. Thursday brings announcement of BOJ's quarterly bond purchase plan for July-September, which may likely be revised higher as BOJ’s resolve on yield curve control continues to be tested. Tokyo inflation for June is also due on Friday.
EURCHF has dipped below parity and just below the spike lows from early March triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The SNB’s recent 50-basis point rate hike at its June meeting took the market by surprise as it has front-run the ECB in initiating a rate-hike cycle, with the latter is only set to move by 25 basis points in July. The SNB’s weekly sight deposits have actually fallen in recent weeks, suggesting that the SNB is comfortable with a stronger CHF as it is not intervening. There are no real chart levels of note to the downside from here as the chaotic 2015 unwind of the EURCHF floor created only fleeting price action below parity that was erased within a couple of weeks.
Crude oil came under pressure again yesterday amid signs of slowing US gasoline demand, and we may be looking at the first monthly decline since November with Brent currently stuck in a wide $110 to $120 range. The weekly EIA report showed US crude stockpiles at their lowest since 2004 but the key market impact came from signs US gasoline demand is slowing with four-week average demand falling to a 2014 seasonal low. However, we still believe fears of demand destruction will be more than offset by supply constraints. OPEC+ meet today, and already trailing their own production target by 2.7 million barrels per day the group is expected to rubberstamp another small but illusive production increase, thereby completing the reversal of output cuts made at the start of the pandemic in 2020. What lies ahead for the group will be crucial, but with most producers being close to maxed out, we are unlikely to see a surprise additional supply response.
Gold and silver (XAGUSD) are both heading for a third straight monthly decline with the strong dollar and elevated yields taking their toll. In addition, silver has suffered due to its link to industrial metals, the worst performing sector this month, and as a result the XAUXAG ratio trades near a two-year high. Gold on a relative basis, however, continues to perform well compared with the sharp declines in stocks and bonds. Reasons for holding gold, such as the hedge against stagflation and geopolitical risks, have not gone away, but for now with the summer holiday and low liquidity season upon us, investors are scaling back more than gearing up.
US Treasury yields fell sharply yesterday, with the 10-year benchmark treasury yield closing near the lowest daily close for this period of consolidation near 3.10%, with the next focus lower on the 3.00% lows of last week as a possible trigger for further bond market strength, perhaps on the fears of rising recession risks. Yesterday’s significant reversal in crude oil prices likely prompted some of the strength in treasuries. Economic data will be important to watch through next Friday’s US jobs report (US PCE inflation today, ISM Manufacturing tomorrow, ISM Services next Wednesday), as well as whether the long end of the sovereign yield curve serves as a safe haven should equity markets crater. In the cycle since last year, bonds have provided no solace for mixed portfolios as both bonds and equities have suffered, but at times, the correlation turns negative between the two asset classes.
Powell said the job for policymakers is to find price stability even during the new forces of inflation and that a reversal of globalisation could mean lower growth in place, while he added the US economy is in strong shape and can withstand monetary policy moves. Powell added the aim is to have growth moderate and there is a risk that the Fed could go too far but it is not the largest risk as the biggest risk would be a failure to restore price stability. Meanwhile in a separate speech in another event, Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC voting member) said she supports a 75bps hike in July if econ conditions stay unchanged.
Japan’s bond traders are still testing the BOJ’s resolve on the yield curve control, even as US Treasury yields turned lower. Super long yields (30-year) are still running higher, and the yield curve is the steepest since 2016. The BOJ’s bond buying schedule for Q3 will be closely watched today, but greater risks are seen from US data coming out on the stronger side and ruling out the scenario of a deep recession, which would mean US Treasury yields will go higher again and make things ugly for the BOJ yet again. But more than the bond markets, focus of Gov Kuroda will be on the stickiness of Japan’s inflation and that could be a trigger point for BOJ to capitulate. Certainly, one of the things we are watching going into Q3.
Shares were up 6% as the company’s organic sales forecast of 4-5% is above consensus of 3.7% and EPS was $1.12 vs est. $1.01 suggesting General Mills have had success in passing on costs to retailers and consumers. The company also said that it expects supply chain disruptions to slowly moderate during the fiscal year 2023 (ending 31 May 2023).
Sweden’s central bank is nearly universally expected to hike rates 50 basis point today to take the policy rate to +0.75%, and yet it is difficult to detect any enthusiasm for the SEK in the key EURSEK pair, which trades near 10.70 and in an elevated range off the April and 2022 lows of 10.22. SEK tends to trade as a function of the economic outlook for the Eurozone and is one of the most sensitive . Still, the Riksbank has gone a long way to clawing back some credibility on inflation fighting with a huge shift in guidance and a now more rapid pace of tightening. Watching the guidance for the policy rate and any comments on concerns for the domestic housing market, which has been bubbly for years and will be heavily impacted by the new tightening regime.
Worries about a global food crisis extending into the autumn and winter months have calmed down a bit this month with most agriculture futures trading lower, led by the grains sector where the Bloomberg Grains Index shows a 9% loss for the month, led by wheat and edible oils, the two sectors that surged the most after supply chains from Ukraine got cut following Russia’s attack. With promising crop forecasts from Australia and Russia and a general worry about an economic slowdown being the main drivers, the market nevertheless needs a strong production year in North America as well. Today, the USDA will release its updated acreage report with traders anticipating a cut to soybean and wheat and an increase in corn planting. The quarterly stock report is expected to show steep year-on-year declines in wheat with gains in soybeans. Link to survey.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
