Macro: It’s all about elections and keeping status quo
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
Chief Investment Officer
Summary: We are close to stock market collapse and have already seen Oil drop by 26% OVERNIGHT! This WILL create a policy response: We see coordinated rate cuts today as most likely - central bank can't afford to wait.
What’s Next:
European open and hence trading in single stocks
Oil is up > 3$ from low...
Policy Action:
Market expects there is more than 50/50 chance for a 50 bps Fed CUT today & We are looking for 75 BPS minimum as a house
Cut @ March 18 meeting = 100 bps (spot Fed funds trades 99.238 and w. 100 BPS cut it should be 99.27 post)
Cut @ today priced at 50 bps (Spot Fed Funds @ 99.238 vs. 99.21 if they cut
Tactically:
It’s a long day ahead…..