Chief Investment Officer
Summary: The market is proving slow to recognize the risks of a dramatic downgrade to global growth this year as a consequence of the coronavirus outbreak and its effects on global supply chains and consumer activity, even as well all hope for a minimum toll on human life. Here we consider where the market will react to this situation, with special focus on the always slow to react US Federal Reserve.
Conclusion:
Independently of the severity of the coronavirus itself, the damage to global growth is now both given and highly probable, as is the ongoing disruption to global supply chains.
Reaction:
Expect significant repricing of short-term policy rates (read: the Fed) down to protect yield curve steepness. By the end of February, as much as 100 basis points lower global growth should be fully priced and companies will submit much lower guidance on this disruption (Apple started yesterday).
Biggest impacts:
Chart: CCC-rated credit spreads via BofAML
The junk bond segment has very high concentration in energy and hence acts as ‘barometer’ on credit tightness.
The SaxoStrats view:
We believe market has been and remains too complacent on the economic cost from the virus. We remain confident this will be under control ultimately and as soon as travel restrictions create better transparency on the total number of people hit by virus. The response has been faster this time around. We are no experts on risks of the virus itself and will limit our main call to impact from economic and market side.
We do see much lower policy rates from the US and expect a full 25-bp rate cut being priced in by the end of February and likely three cuts in all by mid-summer. (This will fit our long term view that US real rates are 100 bps too high versus the rest of world as US economic cycle lags global cycle)
As always, the market doesn’t take the Fed at its word, as the Fed continue to suggest a positive outlook on the economy, as already now the market is 80% certain that two cuts will happen by the end of the year.
There are several factors that will drive markets over the next few weeks:
Some notes from the Economist:
Latest must reads from SaxoStrats:
https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/macro-dragon-special-s1e3-28012020
Steen Jakobsen
Chief Investment Officer, Saxo Bank Group
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Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
