Macro Brief: Always listen to Kashkari

Macro 4 minutes to read

Christopher Dembik

Head of Macro Analysis

Summary:  Today's economic calendar contains updates on US jobs and manufacturing but the key item on the agenda is a speech by one of the Fed's most talented economists.


Today’s focus will mostly concern US economic data. However, no one expects a strong market impact as there is little question about the strength of the US economy, despite the fact it is at the end of the business cycle. The ADP employment report for March should confirm the US labor market remains well-oriented. Consensus expectations are for payroll employment growth to slightly slow to 180k vs the prior level of 183k. It is usually not very well-correlated with NFP, but it is worth a look.

In addition, the ISM non-manufacturing index for March should move a bit lower, at 58.0 vs prior 59.7 due to mixed regional service sector surveys. Overall, it is still well into expansion phase, thus a very positive economic development. 

Elsewhere, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is due to speak about economic activity and monetary policy in North Dakota. He is a Federal Open Market Committee non-voter but certainly one of the most talented economists at the Fed. It is always worthwhile to spend a bit of time listening to his input. Remember that he was one of the first mainstream economists to call on the Fed to pause. He may give us important insights about what’s next and the risk linked to the recent inversion of the US yield curve.

Today’s Calendar (All Times GMT)

12:15 USA, ADP employment report
12:30 USA, Bostic’s speech
14:00 USA, ISM manufacturing
21:00 USA, Kashkari’s speech

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