Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 4 March 2024 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 4 March 2024 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 4 March 2024

Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 4 March 2024

Macro 3 minutes to read
Saxo Strategy Team

Summary:  US stocks rose sharply on Friday after softer than expected economic data drove Treasury yields lower, and once again the optimism was fueled by AI and semiconductors, with Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Marvell Technology, and other semiconductor names all surging more than 4%, lifting the Nasdaq 100 Index by 1.4% and the S&P 500 Index by 0.8%. Asia traded broadly higher overnight with the Nikkei surpassing 40,000 while Chinese stocks fluctuated ahead of a critical week of annual parliamentary meetings, which investors are watching closely for signals on economic stimulus. OPEC+ meanwhile extended their production curbs until midyear while gold raced higher to record its highest close ever. Focus this week on Fed Chair Powell’s testimony before congress, Friday’s US jobs data as well as ECB meeting

The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.

Equities: Quiet start to the new week with small moves across Asian equity markets and flat equity futures across Europe and the US. Key events to track this week are investors’ appetite for US equities with equity valuations being quite stretched, Super Tuesday tomorrow with the most US states holding primary elections ahead of party nominations, earnings from Sea Ltd (today), (Wed), Dassault Aviation (Wed), and Costco (Thu). Interesting single stock news are Super Micro Computer is set to enter the S&P 500 Index as generative AI fever keeps transforming equity indices, and Bank of America analysts saying Eli Lilly can rally another 30%.

FX: The dollar traded broadly lower with Treasury yields in Friday’s session as ISM manufacturing and the revision to University of Michigan sentiment numbers garnered a dovish reaction. Despite a softer greenback, however, yen underperformed as Governor Ueda retained a dovish narrative with USDJPY rising back above 150. Activity currencies were the top gainers amid dollar weakness, with NOK outperforming followed by SEK, AUD and NZD. The EURUSD meanwhile remains stuck with a 1.08 handle with firm resistance at 1.09 ahead of this week’s ECB meeting, and GBPUSD stays above 1.26 with focus on the UK budget.

Commodities: Gold closed at a record high on Friday after a softer dollar and Treasury yields triggered a strong technical buying reaction, thereby strengthening the yellow metal’s buy-on-dip credentials following a month that should have seen it trade lower amid lower rate cut expectations, dollar and yield strength as well as continued selling from investors in ETFs. Instead, strong physical demand and low short-selling appetite at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions have supported. Crude oil prices trade near this year's high after OPEC+ agreed to extend output curbs into mid-year amid non-OPEC supply and risk of demand disruptions. Industrial metals will focus on China’s rubber-stamp Congress this week where growth and inflation target as well as policy direction will be announced.

Fixed income: Last week, markets increased expectations of interest rate cuts for this year, following a downside surprise in the US February manufacturing ISM and the University of Michigan survey below estimates. Waller’s speech also boosted US Treasuries as he commented about Quantitative Tightening (QT), mentioning that he would like to see MBS holding to zero and US Treasury holdings towards a larger share of shorter-dated securities. Such a comment led the US yield curve to bull-steepen, with 2-year yields dropping by 9bps on Friday and 16bps over the week to 4.53%, and ten-year yields dropping by roughly 7bps on Friday to 4.18%. In Europe, flash inflation data for February came higher than expected, with core inflation remaining above the 3% mark. Thus, markets pared back on expectations of ECB rate cuts, pricing for the first time since October less than 25bps rate cuts by June. This week, the focus shifts onto US Services ISM, Super Tuesday, Powell’s congressional testimony, and nonfarm payrolls on Friday. In Europe, the attention turns to the UK budget and the ECB meeting on Thursday, where inflation projections are expected to be revised downward, boosting European sovereigns (for a preview, click here).

Macro: US ISM manufacturing PMI for February unexpectedly fell to 47.8 from 49.1, against the forecasted rise to 49.5. Prices paid remain in expansionary territory but encouragingly dipped to 52.5 (prev. 52.9, exp. 53.0), while new orders fell into contractionary territory to 49.2 from 52.5. Employment and production declined to 45.9 (prev. 47.1) and 48.4 (prev. 50.4), respectively. Focus now turns to services ISM PMI due on Tuesday although markets may be in a wait mode ahead of the NFP jobs numbers due on Friday. Eurozone disinflation continued in February, even though the headline print came in higher than expected at 2.6% YoY vs. 2.5% exp and 2.8% prior. Core inflation eased to 3.1% YoY from 3.3% in January, coming in above expectations of 2.9%. This could mean that an April ECB rate cut remains off the table for now, but ECB meeting this week will be key to assess the staff projections on GDP and CPI for 2024 and Lagarde’s take on wages and inflation. Read Saxo’s ECB preview here. Focus on China this week with the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Consultative Conference (CPPCC) from March 4 to March 10 and the National People’s Congress (NPC) starting on March 5 and concluding on March 11, potentially bearing substantial implications for China's economic trajectory. Read our preview here

Technical analysis highlights: S&P 500 uptrend extended, likely to 5,176. Nasdaq 100 spiked higher, short-term potential to 18,593-18,763. DAX uptrend could have exhausted, Monday trading could be key. EURUSD range bound 1.08-1.09. USDJPY dipped below support at 149.75 but closed above, could be caught range bound 149-151. EURJPY uptrend intact after correction. Likely to resume bullish move. GBPUSD range bound 1.2535-1.27. USDCHF rejected at key resist at 0.89. Gold broken key resistance at 2,065 short-term potential to 2,135-2,150.  WTI oil closed above key resistance at 79.77 confirming uptrend with potential to 87-90, resistance at 82.56. 10-year T-yields below key support at 4.20, next 4.11 and 4.00

Volatility: On Friday, the VIX further declined to $13.11 (-0.29 | -2.16. The VVIX increased to 77.68 (+0.23 | +0.30%), the SKEW index edged up to 150.42 (+0.59 | +0.39%), suggesting cautious sentiment about potential outlier events. The expected market moves for the upcoming week are projected at +/- 55.94 (+/- 1.09%) for the S&P 500 and +/- 292.32 (+/- 1.60%) for the Nasdaq 100, mirroring last week's volatility expectations. The coming week is packed with economic reports including ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, ADP Nonfarm Employment, Fed Chair Powell's Testimony, JOLTs Job Openings, Initial Jobless Claims, and Nonfarm Payrolls, any of which could be catalysts for market volatility. Noteworthy earnings from CrowdStrike, Oracle, and MongoDB are also on the horizon. VIX futures have slightly decreased to 14.00 (-0.050, -0.34%), with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures showing minor adjustments to 5141.75 (-4.25 | -0.08%) and 18357.00 (+19.00 | +0.10%). Friday's most active stock options were, in order: NVDA, TSLA, AMD, AAPL, META, PLTR, AMZN, MARA, NYCB, MSFT.

In the news: Fed policy report warns on possible financial sector risks (Reuters), OPEC+ members extend oil output cuts to second quarter (Reuters), China to Unveil GDP Target, Avoid ‘Bazooka’ Stimulus at Meeting (Bloomberg), China needs 10 times its solar and wind power to be carbon neutral, study finds (SCMP), U.S. seeks to revive idled shipyards with help of Japan, South Korea (Nikkei Asia)

Macro events (all times are GMT): Switzerland Feb CPI YoY est. 1.1% vs prior 1.3% (07:30), Eurozone Mar Sentix Investor Confidence est. -10.6 vs prior -12.9 (09:30), Japan Tokyo Feb CPI YoY est. 2.5% vs prior 1.8%.

Earnings events: Key earnings releases this week are listed below. Our key focus is Sea Ltd today on temperature on Southeast Asia e-commerce demand, on Wednesday for insights into the Chinese consumer, Dassault Aviation on Wednesday for an update on military spending in Europe, and finally Costco on Thursday as one the largest US retailers.

  • Monday: Archer-Daniels-Midland, China Tower, Sea Ltd
  • Tuesday: Thales, Lindt, Bayer, Ferguson, Ross Stores, Franco-Nevada, Crowdstrike, Target, Ashtead, NIO
  • Wednesday: Deutsche Post, Brown-Forman,, Legal & General, Dassault Aviation
  • Thursday: MTR, Techtronic Industries, Prada, Merck KGaA, Costsco, Broadcom, Marvell Technology, MongoDB, Samsara, Kroger, Continental, Vivendi, DocuSign
  • Friday: Oracle, China Unicom Hong Kong, ZTE

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
- Full disclaimer (
- Full disclaimer (

Boulevard Plaza, Tower 1, 30th floor, office 3002
Downtown, P.O. Box 33641 Dubai, UAE

Contact Saxo

Select region


Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

Saxo Bank A/S is licensed by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and operates in the UAE under a representative office license issued by the Central bank of the UAE.

The content and material made available on this website and the linked sites are provided by Saxo Bank A/S. It is the sole responsibility of the recipient to ascertain the terms of and comply with any local laws or regulation to which they are subject.

The UAE Representative Office of Saxo Bank A/S markets the Saxo Bank A/S trading platform and the products offered by Saxo Bank A/S.