Key points:
The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.
Equities: Was Fed Chair Powell dovish or hawkish last night? Depending on your angle you can spin either way. The Fed thinks the current policy rate is restrictive, but they are surprised about the long lag in pulling inflation down. The “higher for longer” scenario is playing out at this point, which is hawkish, but Powell also said that the next rate decision will most likely not be a hike, which is dovish. Overall, S&P 500 futures are trading slightly higher than before the FOMC rate decision after wild swings over the press conference. Mastercard shares fell 2% yesterday as Q1 results disappointed investors and the company issuing weaker guidance suggesting some emerging fatigue among consumers. Novo Nordisk is reporting Q1 results this morning beating estimates on revenue and EBIT while lifting the predicted revenue growth range for 2024 by 1%-point. Novo Nordisk has quadrupled the number of US patients starting on Wegovy and demand is still outstripping supply. Shell is also reporting Q1 results this morning beating every estimate increasing its buybacks by $3.5bn in addition to reducing its net debt at a faster pace than estimated.
FX: Dollar pushed lower as Fed Chair Powell could not clear the high hawkish bar we had highlighted in the FOMC preview and the Saxo Market Call earlier this week. Still, the path for a second round of Japanese intervention was cleared as USDJPY hovered near 158, and the last few minutes of NY trading saw the pair plunge sharply lower to 153 in a suspected intervention move. The move, once again, has all the hallmarks of an intervention, given the timing of thin liquidity and an eventual 5-yen drop, but the pair is back above 155.50 now. Fading of the yen strength could likely be quicker now after the two suspected Japanese intervention clearing out speculators. AUDUSD also rose to 0.6540 after a sharp drop to 0.6465 given the miss in retail sales we highlighted in our FX note. 100DMA at 0.6584 is still likely to cap AUDUSD and the move in AUDNZD to 1.10+ remains at risk of reversal. GBPUSD was the underperformer, given the weak equity sentiment and 200DMA at 1.2550 providing resistance. USDCAD moved lower towards 1.3720 despite Bank of Canada Governor Macklem’s comments still hinting at a rate cut coming soon.
Commodities: Gold rebounded back above $2300 after Fed Chair Powell kept rate cuts on the table, while saying it was unlikely the next move would be a hike. Resistance at $2352 with key support in the $2250-60 area. Copper’s momentum-driven rally shows sign of cooling with short-term fundamentals, especially focused on weakness in China, not supporting further gains at this stage. Crude oil slumped to a near two-month low pressured by hedge funds long liquidation amid signs of weaker demand and easing tensions in the Middle East. US crude stocks jumped to near a one-year high while implied gasoline demand dropped to a 2020 low. Wheat continues to surrender some of last week’s strong gains on news of beneficial rain in U.S. Plains and Russia. Weak demand sees palladium trades below platinum which is supported by supply side issues tightening supply.
Fixed income: Bond investors had a lot to absorb yesterday. The U.S. Treasury announced it will continue issuing high levels of coupon-bearing US Treasuries through the end of the year. Simultaneously, the Federal Reserve is reducing its Quantitative Tightening pace from $60 billion a month to $25 billion. The clear message is that despite abundant reserves, policymakers aim for a soft landing ahead of the U.S. elections, prompting them to monetize U.S. debt. The implications of such monetary policy decisions for bond markets are significant. On the one hand, the potential for policy errors increases; on the other, rate cuts are deferred further into the future. As a result, the yield curve might remain flat for an extended period, although the risk of a rise in the term premium looms as inflation stays high. Nonetheless, the immediate response in U.S. Treasuries indicates that markets are not worried yet about the above. The yield curve steepened yesterday, with 2-year yields dropping 7 basis points to 4.97%, and 10-year yields falling 5 basis points to 4.63%. Attention is now turning to Friday's non-farm payroll report. We remain cautious about duration and continue to prefer good quality, short-term bonds.
Technical analysis highlights: S&P500 bearish trend in play, key support at 4,953, above 5,146 then bullish. Nasdaq 100 rejected at key resist at 17,808 likely resuming downtrend, support at 16,963. DAX rejected at key resistance at 18,192, if close above uptrend, key support 17,620. EURUSD resuming downtrend possibly down to 1.05, support at 1.06. GBPUSD range bound 1.2570-1.2449. USDJPY sold off down to 0.786 retracement at 152.88 then strong rebound, likely up to 157.50. EURJPY sold off down to 0.786 retracement at 164.29, rebounding likely up to 167.77. AUDJPY dipped to test 100 then rebounding. USDCAD uptrend with potential to 1.3935. Gold correction possibly down to 2,255, bullish above 2,353. Brent oil sold off below support at 84.75, now bearish trend, support at 81.40. US 10-year T-yield minor correction likely, support at 4.47
Volatility: VIX ended at $15.39 (-0.26 | -1.66%) after a volatile day. And volatility isn't gone yet, with the VIX1D still at 14.12 (-3.98 | -21.99%), which is relatively high compared to the standard 30 day VIX. Yesterday's volatility was caused mainly by the market's reaction on the FOMC press conference. Today the initial jobless claims is the only economic number published. In earnings markets will be focusing on Apple, which publishes it's results after market hours. VIX futures are a down this morning at 15.300 (-0.410 | -2.60%), S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures are at 5071.50 (+25.00 | +0.50%) and 17540.50 (+102.25 | +0.59%) respectively. Wednesday's top 10 traded stock options, in order: TSLA, NVDA, AMZN, AMD, SBUX, PFE, AAPL, NIO, META and CVS.
Macro: The Fed left rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50% as expected, whilst also confirming the announcement of the QT taper. Chair Powell acknowledged the lack of progress on inflation but did not put a rate hike back on the table. He said that future moves remained skewed to rate cuts, even though cuts have been delayed and the bar has been raised. Powell said a rate hike remains unlikely, when asked, alleviating some hawkish risks that Powell may open up a more two-sided policy debate at this meeting. On the QT taper, the Fed announced it is to taper its QT run-off to just USD 25bln a month from USD 60bln, slightly more dovish than the expected USD 30bln, whilst also maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities at USD 35bln. US JOLTS jobs openings in March fell to 8.488mln from the prior, revised lower, 8.813mln and beneath the consensus of 8.686mln which highlighted demand for workers continues to ease, with the headline metric declining to the lowest level in more than three years. The quit rate also fell to 2.1% from 2.2%, its lowest since August 2020, pointing to slower wage growth in the months ahead. There were 1.3 vacancies for every unemployed worker in March, the lowest since August 2021. US ISM Manufacturing fell back into contractionary territory in April as it dipped to 49.2 from 50.3. ISM Manufacturing fell back into contractionary territory in April as it dipped to 49.2 from 50.3, once again sending stagflation fears. US headline ADP jobs rose by 192k in April, above the 175k forecast but it did ease from the prior revised up 208k (initially 184k, however). Focus shifts to NFP data due on Friday, and wage pressures will be on watch to assess inflation trajectory from here.
In the news: Fed Chair Jerome Powell Projects Optimism, But Inflation Data Are in the Driver’s Seat (WSJ), Qualcomm forecast beats estimates as AI drives chip sales in China (Reuters), Apple set for big sales decline as investors await AI in iPhones (Reuters), DoorDash disappoints Wall Street with downbeat quarterly core profit (Reuters), Hong Kong’s Stock Rally Faces Test With China Inflows on Pause (Bloomberg), ‘Liquid gold’: An olive oil shortage is fueling record prices and food insecurity fears (CNBC)
Macro events (all times are GMT): April Final Manufacturing PMIs from Italy (0745), France (0750), Germany (0755), and Eurozone (0800), US Trade Balance (Mar) exp -$69.7bn vs -$68.9bn prior (1230), US Unit Labour Costs (1Q) exp 3.6% vs 0.4% prior (1230), US Weekly Jobless Claims exp. 211k vs 207k prior, US Factory Orders (Mar) exp 1.6% vs 1.4% prior (1400).
Earnings events: Big day ahead on earnings with many key earnings in both the US and Europe. Novo Nordisk and Apple are the two most important earnings in terms of market sentiment impact and Novo Nordisk has already reported ahead of trading hours. Apple will report after the US market close with expectations running low due to weakening demand in China and regulatory pressures in the EU.
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
