Global Market Quick Take: Europe – May 2, 2024 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – May 2, 2024 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – May 2, 2024

Global Market Quick Take: Europe – May 2, 2024

Macro 3 minutes to read
Saxo Strategy Team

Key points:

  • Equities: US equity futures are slightly higher than pre FOMC event. Strong earnings from Shell and Novo Nordisk
  • FX: Post-FOMC dollar softness; Yen intervention resumes
  • Commodities: Gold rebounds on dovish Fed; crude slumps on weak demand, and copper rally looks overdone
  • Fixed Income: A dovish FOMC meeting raises the risk of policy mistake.
  • Economic data: US jobless claims and factory orders

The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.

Equities: Was Fed Chair Powell dovish or hawkish last night? Depending on your angle you can spin either way. The Fed thinks the current policy rate is restrictive, but they are surprised about the long lag in pulling inflation down. The “higher for longer” scenario is playing out at this point, which is hawkish, but Powell also said that the next rate decision will most likely not be a hike, which is dovish. Overall, S&P 500 futures are trading slightly higher than before the FOMC rate decision after wild swings over the press conference. Mastercard shares fell 2% yesterday as Q1 results disappointed investors and the company issuing weaker guidance suggesting some emerging fatigue among consumers. Novo Nordisk is reporting Q1 results this morning beating estimates on revenue and EBIT while lifting the predicted revenue growth range for 2024 by 1%-point. Novo Nordisk has quadrupled the number of US patients starting on Wegovy and demand is still outstripping supply. Shell is also reporting Q1 results this morning beating every estimate increasing its buybacks by $3.5bn in addition to reducing its net debt at a faster pace than estimated.

FX: Dollar pushed lower as Fed Chair Powell could not clear the high hawkish bar we had highlighted in the FOMC preview and the Saxo Market Call earlier this week. Still, the path for a second round of Japanese intervention was cleared as USDJPY hovered near 158, and the last few minutes of NY trading saw the pair plunge sharply lower to 153 in a suspected intervention move. The move, once again, has all the hallmarks of an intervention, given the timing of thin liquidity and an eventual 5-yen drop, but the pair is back above 155.50 now. Fading of the yen strength could likely be quicker now after the two suspected Japanese intervention clearing out speculators. AUDUSD also rose to 0.6540 after a sharp drop to 0.6465 given the miss in retail sales we highlighted in our FX note. 100DMA at 0.6584 is still likely to cap AUDUSD and the move in AUDNZD to 1.10+ remains at risk of reversal. GBPUSD was the underperformer, given the weak equity sentiment and 200DMA at 1.2550 providing resistance. USDCAD moved lower towards 1.3720 despite Bank of Canada Governor Macklem’s comments still hinting at a rate cut coming soon.

Commodities: Gold rebounded back above $2300 after Fed Chair Powell kept rate cuts on the table, while saying it was unlikely the next move would be a hike. Resistance at $2352 with key support in the $2250-60 area. Copper’s momentum-driven rally shows sign of cooling with short-term fundamentals, especially focused on weakness in China, not supporting further gains at this stage. Crude oil slumped to a near two-month low pressured by hedge funds long liquidation amid signs of weaker demand and easing tensions in the Middle East. US crude stocks jumped to near a one-year high while implied gasoline demand dropped to a 2020 low. Wheat continues to surrender some of last week’s strong gains on news of beneficial rain in U.S. Plains and Russia. Weak demand sees palladium trades below platinum which is supported by supply side issues tightening supply.

Fixed income: Bond investors had a lot to absorb yesterday. The U.S. Treasury announced it will continue issuing high levels of coupon-bearing US Treasuries through the end of the year. Simultaneously, the Federal Reserve is reducing its Quantitative Tightening pace from $60 billion a month to $25 billion. The clear message is that despite abundant reserves, policymakers aim for a soft landing ahead of the U.S. elections, prompting them to monetize U.S. debt. The implications of such monetary policy decisions for bond markets are significant. On the one hand, the potential for policy errors increases; on the other, rate cuts are deferred further into the future. As a result, the yield curve might remain flat for an extended period, although the risk of a rise in the term premium looms as inflation stays high. Nonetheless, the immediate response in U.S. Treasuries indicates that markets are not worried yet about the above. The yield curve steepened yesterday, with 2-year yields dropping 7 basis points to 4.97%, and 10-year yields falling 5 basis points to 4.63%. Attention is now turning to Friday's non-farm payroll report. We remain cautious about duration and continue to prefer good quality, short-term bonds.

Technical analysis highlights: S&P500 bearish trend in play, key support at 4,953, above 5,146 then bullish. Nasdaq 100 rejected at key resist at 17,808 likely resuming downtrend, support at 16,963. DAX rejected at key resistance at 18,192, if close above uptrend, key support 17,620. EURUSD resuming downtrend possibly down to 1.05, support at 1.06. GBPUSD range bound 1.2570-1.2449. USDJPY sold off down to 0.786 retracement at 152.88 then strong rebound, likely up to 157.50. EURJPY sold off down to 0.786 retracement at 164.29, rebounding likely up to 167.77. AUDJPY dipped to test 100 then rebounding. USDCAD uptrend with potential to 1.3935. Gold correction possibly down to 2,255, bullish above 2,353. Brent oil sold off below support at 84.75, now bearish trend, support at 81.40. US 10-year T-yield minor correction likely, support at 4.47

Volatility: VIX ended at $15.39 (-0.26 | -1.66%) after a volatile day. And volatility isn't gone yet, with the VIX1D still at 14.12 (-3.98 | -21.99%), which is relatively high compared to the standard 30 day VIX. Yesterday's volatility was caused mainly by the market's reaction on the FOMC press conference. Today the initial jobless claims is the only economic number published. In earnings markets will be focusing on Apple, which publishes it's results after market hours. VIX futures are a down this morning at 15.300 (-0.410 | -2.60%), S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures are at 5071.50 (+25.00 | +0.50%) and 17540.50 (+102.25 | +0.59%) respectively. Wednesday's top 10 traded stock options, in order: TSLA, NVDA, AMZN, AMD, SBUX, PFE, AAPL, NIO, META and CVS.

Macro: The Fed left rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50% as expected, whilst also confirming the announcement of the QT taper. Chair Powell acknowledged the lack of progress on inflation but did not put a rate hike back on the table. He said that future moves remained skewed to rate cuts, even though cuts have been delayed and the bar has been raised. Powell said a rate hike remains unlikely, when asked, alleviating some hawkish risks that Powell may open up a more two-sided policy debate at this meeting. On the QT taper, the Fed announced it is to taper its QT run-off to just USD 25bln a month from USD 60bln, slightly more dovish than the expected USD 30bln, whilst also maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities at USD 35bln. US JOLTS jobs openings in March fell to 8.488mln from the prior, revised lower, 8.813mln and beneath the consensus of 8.686mln which highlighted demand for workers continues to ease, with the headline metric declining to the lowest level in more than three years. The quit rate also fell to 2.1% from 2.2%, its lowest since August 2020, pointing to slower wage growth in the months ahead. There were 1.3 vacancies for every unemployed worker in March, the lowest since August 2021. US ISM Manufacturing fell back into contractionary territory in April as it dipped to 49.2 from 50.3. ISM Manufacturing fell back into contractionary territory in April as it dipped to 49.2 from 50.3, once again sending stagflation fears. US headline ADP jobs rose by 192k in April, above the 175k forecast but it did ease from the prior revised up 208k (initially 184k, however). Focus shifts to NFP data due on Friday, and wage pressures will be on watch to assess inflation trajectory from here.

In the news: Fed Chair Jerome Powell Projects Optimism, But Inflation Data Are in the Driver’s Seat  (WSJ), Qualcomm forecast beats estimates as AI drives chip sales in China (Reuters), Apple set for big sales decline as investors await AI in iPhones (Reuters), DoorDash disappoints Wall Street with downbeat quarterly core profit (Reuters), Hong Kong’s Stock Rally Faces Test With China Inflows on Pause (Bloomberg), ‘Liquid gold’: An olive oil shortage is fueling record prices and food insecurity fears (CNBC)

Macro events (all times are GMT): April Final Manufacturing PMIs from Italy (0745), France (0750), Germany (0755), and Eurozone (0800), US Trade Balance (Mar) exp -$69.7bn vs -$68.9bn prior (1230), US Unit Labour Costs (1Q) exp 3.6% vs 0.4% prior (1230), US Weekly Jobless Claims exp. 211k vs 207k prior, US Factory Orders (Mar) exp 1.6% vs 1.4% prior (1400).

Earnings events: Big day ahead on earnings with many key earnings in both the US and Europe. Novo Nordisk and Apple are the two most important earnings in terms of market sentiment impact and Novo Nordisk has already reported ahead of trading hours. Apple will report after the US market close with expectations running low due to weakening demand in China and regulatory pressures in the EU.

  • Today: Novo Nordisk, Linde, Booking, Apple, Amgen, Shell, ConocoPhillips, Cigna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, National Australia Bank, Macquarie Group, Vestas, Mærsk, Ørsted, Genmab, Pandora, Universal Music, ING, ArcelorMittal, Coinbase, Fortinet, Block, Moderna, Cloudflare,
  • Friday: Novonesis, Danske Bank, Credit Agricole, Societe Generale, Intesa Sanpaolo, MercadoLibre, Monster Beverage
  • Weekend: Berkshire Hathaway

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar

Avertissement sur la responsabilité de Saxo

Toutes les entités du Groupe Saxo Banque proposent un service d’exécution et un accès à l’analyse permettant de visualiser et/ou d’utiliser le contenu disponible sur ou via le site Internet. Ce contenu n’a pas pour but de modifier ou d’étendre le service réservé à l’exécution et n’est pas destiné à le faire. Cet accès et cette utilisation seront toujours soumis (i) aux conditions générales d’utilisation ; (ii) à la clause de non-responsabilité ; (iii) à l’avertissement sur les risques ; (iv) aux règles d’engagement et (v) aux avis s’appliquant aux actualités et recherches de Saxo et/ou leur contenu, en plus (le cas échéant) des conditions régissant l’utilisation des liens hypertextes sur le site Internet d’un membre du Groupe Saxo Banque via lequel l’accès aux actualités et recherches de Saxo est obtenu. Ce contenu n’est donc fourni qu’à titre informatif. Plus particulièrement, aucun conseil n’entend être donné ou suivi tel qu’il est donné ni soutenu par une entité du Groupe Saxo Banque. De même, aucun conseil ne doit être interprété comme une sollicitation ou un encouragement visant à s’abonner à, vendre ou acheter des instruments financiers. Toutes les opérations boursières ou les investissements que vous effectuez doivent être le fruit de vos décisions spontanées, éclairées et personnelles. De ce fait, aucune entité du Groupe Saxo Banque ne pourra être tenue responsable de vos éventuelles pertes suite à une décision d’investissement prise en fonction des informations disponibles dans les actualités et recherches de Saxo ou suite à l’utilisation des actualités et recherches de Saxo. Les ordres donnés et les opérations boursières effectuées sont considérés comme donnés ou effectués pour le compte du client avec l’entité du Groupe Saxo Banque opérant dans la juridiction de résidence du client et/ou chez qui le client a ouvert et alimenté son compte de transactions. Les actualités et recherches de Saxo ne contiennent pas (et ne doivent pas être interprétées comme contenant) de conseils en matière de finance, d’investissement, d’impôts, de transactions ou de quelque autre nature proposés, recommandés ou soutenus par le Groupe Saxo Banque. Elles ne doivent pas non plus être interprétées comme un registre de nos tarifs d’opérations boursières ou comme une offre, incitation ou sollicitation d’abonnement, de vente ou d’achat du moindre instrument financier. Dans la mesure où tout contenu est interprété comme une recherche d’investissement, vous devez noter et accepter que le contenu ne visait pas et n’a pas été préparé conformément aux exigences légales destinées à promouvoir l’indépendance de la recherche d’investissement et, en tant que tel, serait considéré comme une communication marketing en vertu des lois concernées.

Veuillez lire nos clauses de non-responsabilité :
Notification sur la recherche en investissement non-indépendant (
Clause de non-responsabilité complète (
Clause de non-responsabilité complète (

Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA
The Circle 38

Nous contacter

Select region


Le trading d’instruments financiers comporte des risques. Les pertes peuvent dépasser les dépôts sur les produits de marge. Vous devez comprendre comment fonctionnent nos produits et quels types de risques ils comportent. De plus, vous devez savoir si vous pouvez vous permettre de prendre un risque élevé de perdre votre argent. Pour vous aider à comprendre les risques impliqués, nous avons compilé une divulgation des risques ainsi qu'un ensemble de documents d'informations clés (Key Information Documents ou KID) qui décrivent les risques et opportunités associés à chaque produit. Les KID sont accessibles sur la plateforme de trading. Veuillez noter que le prospectus complet est disponible gratuitement auprès de Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA ou directement auprès de l'émetteur.

Ce site web est accessible dans le monde entier. Cependant, les informations sur le site web se réfèrent à Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA. Tous les clients traitent directement avec Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA. et tous les accords clients sont conclus avec Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA et sont donc soumis au droit suisse.

Le contenu de ce site web constitue du matériel de marketing et n'a été signalé ou transmis à aucune autorité réglementaire.

Si vous contactez Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA ou visitez ce site web, vous reconnaissez et acceptez que toutes les données que vous transmettez, recueillez ou enregistrez via ce site web, par téléphone ou par tout autre moyen de communication (par ex. e-mail), à Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA peuvent être transmises à d'autres sociétés ou tiers du groupe Saxo Bank en Suisse et à l'étranger et peuvent être enregistrées ou autrement traitées par eux ou Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA. Vous libérez Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA de ses obligations au titre du secret bancaire suisse et du secret des négociants en valeurs mobilières et, dans la mesure permise par la loi, des autres lois et obligations concernant la confidentialité dans le cadre des divulgations de données du client. Saxo Bank (Suisse) SA a pris des mesures techniques et organisationnelles de pointe pour protéger lesdites données contre tout traitement ou transmission non autorisés et appliquera des mesures de sécurité appropriées pour garantir une protection adéquate desdites données.

Apple, iPad et iPhone sont des marques déposées d'Apple Inc., enregistrées aux États-Unis et dans d'autres pays. App Store est une marque de service d'Apple Inc.