Global Market Quick Take: Asia – May 8, 2024

Equities: US equities stalled, with S&P 500 unable to crack above the psychological 5,200-mark despite lower yields as optimism from a dovish-tilting Fed started to fade. Walt Disney fell 9% after the entertainment giant's Disney+ subscriber growth fell just short of estimates and warned about a slowdown in its theme parks division, a key growth engine. Palantir tumbled 15% after the data analytics firm's annual revenue forecast fell short of analyst estimates. Chip stocks were also in focus with WSJ report on Apple developing its own AI chips for data center servers, and Apple also launched a new AI-focused iPad Pro ahead of the developer conference in June. After-hours, Reddit surged nearly 15% on its first earnings report while EV-maker Rivian slipped 6% on larger-than-expected Q1 loss. Uber and Airbnb earnings in focus today.

Meanwhile, EuroStoxx 600 index closed up 1.1% at a fresh record helped by strong company earnings and as sovereign yields ticked lower. UBS Group +7.6% and UniCredit 3.6% led the financial services sector after announcing strong profits. Infineon Technologies +13% on improved outlook. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index also rose 1.6% as its returned from Golden Week. Warren Buffett held trading house, Itochu, reached fresh all-time highs and reports earnings tomorrow, along with the world's largest car manufacturer Toyota.

FX: Forex markets were subdued amid lack of key data or events, and dollar strength prevailed. AUDUSD slid below 0.66 following a less hawkish-than-expected RBA outcome, which set the bar for a rate hike very high. We argue, however, that despite risks of dovish repricing in the RBA curve, AUD could be supported by a turn lower in USD given a dovish-tilting Fed and weakening economic growth, stability in China and rebound in commodity prices. Read this article for our thoughts on AUD. Meanwhile, yen weakness returned and USDJPY traded above 154.80 this morning, with the key 155 barrier coming in view and jawboning from authorities continued as BOJ Governor Ueda met with PM Kishida and said that he will closely monitor how a weak JPY will impact prices. GBPUSD testing a break below 1.25 with BOE meeting tomorrow coming in focus.

Commodities: Crude oil prices lacked a clear direction as with geopolitical tensions keeping supply side concerns in traders’ radar, while API inventory data again showed rising stockpiles for crude, gasoline and distillates. Elsewhere, the latest EIA STEO saw it cut its forecast for 2024 world oil demand growth by 30k BPD to a 0.92mln BPD Y/Y increase whilst raising its forecast for 2025 world oil demand growth by 70k BPD to a 1.42mln BPD Y/Y increase. A stronger dollar also took the shine off metals, and copper, gold and silver ended the day lower but continue to wait for the next catalyst.

Fixed income: Treasury auctions were in focus, and strong demand was seen for the 3-year auction. Tomorrow, the 2nd leg of the coupon auction this week will occur with the sale of 10-year notes. On Thursday, the treasury will complete the coupon auctions with the sale of 30-year bonds. Gilts saw a strong demand with expectations for BOE rate cuts this year rising as Thursday meeting comes in focus.

Macro:

• Fed’s Kashkari crossed the wires from the Milken Conference, saying that the Fed is ready to hold rates steady for an extended period, or raise rates, if needed but inflation target remains at 2% and Fed is not ready to raise that. He said it was too soon to declare that inflation progress has stalled, and still sees rate cut as possibility this year. Next up today will be Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Jefferson and Collins also speak, but expected limited update on monetary policy.
• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expected. The market had set a high hawkish bar for the central bank, with pricing suggesting significant odds of a rate hike this year. As anticipated, the RBA did not meet this high bar, leaving the door open for both rate hikes and rate cuts without showing any significant concern over the recent uptick in Q1 inflation.

Macro events: Riksbank Announcement, German Industrial Output (Mar), Fed’s Cook

Earnings: Itochu, Toyota, BMW, Airbnb, Uber Technologies, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Shopify, Emerson Electric, Verbund, Munich Re, ARM

News:

• TikTok, ByteDance sue to block US law seeking sale or ban of app (Reuters)
• Reddit's strong forecasts spark share surge after first results since IPO (Reuters)
• Disney reports shrinking TV business, shares tumble (Reuters)
• Copper Touches $10,000 as Goldman Sees ‘Stockout’ Risk (Bloomberg)
• UOB Profit Beats Estimates as Wealth Fees Cushion Slower Lending (Bloomberg)

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.