Asia Market Quick Take – October 28, 2025

Asia Market Quick Take – October 28, 2025 

Key points:  

• Macro: Trump to meet Japan’s new PM Sanae Takaichi 
• Equities: Qualcomm jumps 9.5% after launching new AI data center processors 
• FX: USD weakens as risk appetite increases 
• Commodities: Gold falls below $4,000; LME copper near record above $11,000 
• Fixed income: Treasuries twist‑flattened, led by long‑end outperformance 

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

 Macro: 

• The Dallas Fed's Texas manufacturing index rose to -5.0 in October 2025, still negative. Production stayed at 5.2, indicating low growth. Company outlook flat at -0.3, with uncertainty up to 22.2. New orders at -1.7, capacity utilization at -1.1. Shipments steady at 5.8. Employment improved with the index at 2.0; 18% of firms hired, while 16% laid off. Hours worked dropped to -5.5. Price and wage pressures eased. Six-month expectations stayed positive but softer: future production at 21.0, general activity at 7.0.
• Trump will meet Japan's new PM, Sanae Takaichi, in Tokyo on Tuesday to discuss trade and security just after she became Japan’s first female leader. Takaichi plans to offer a $550 billion US investment package and aims to strengthen ties by purchasing US pickup trucks, soybeans, and natural gas. Despite Trump's calls for increased defense spending against China, Takaichi is unlikely to exceed the 2% GDP defense commitment.
• China plans to simplify the qualified foreign investor regime to attract long-term foreign capital, offering easier access and more investment options. The streamlined process sincludes a "green channel" for certain investors and allows use of ETFs and commodity futures trading. CSRC Chairman Wu Qing aims to make China's capital markets more inclusive and competitive amidst global market shifts.
• Canadian PM Carney said Canada is ready to negotiate with the US, and despite no contact since Thursday, emphasized a strong trading relationship and prepared contingency plans if Trump refuses to engage.

Equities:  

• US - US stocks rallied to record highs as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated a promising framework for upcoming trade talks between Presidents Trump and Xi, boosting market sentiment. The S&P 500 rose 1.3%, the Nasdaq climbed 1.9%, and the Dow increased by 350 points, driven by the potential delay in China's rare-earth restrictions, avoidance of 100% tariffs, and renewed Chinese soybean buying. Chip stocks led the strong session, with Nvidia and Broadcom up 2.1% and 2.4%, respectively, and Qualcomm surging 9.5% on unveiling new AI processors for data centers, reshaping investor views on its market and revenue prospects. Tesla gained 4.2% and Apple added 1.3%. Focus shifts to Q3 earnings from major tech firms and an expected 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week. 
• EU - European stocks reached new record highs on Monday due to optimism over improved US-China trade relations enhancing global growth prospects. The STOXX 50 climbed 0.6% to 5,711, and the STOXX 600 rose 0.2% to 577, both achieving historical peaks. Anticipation of reduced trade barriers after the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting boosted corporate outlook. While the ECB is expected to hold rates steady, the Fed is likely to cut rates this week. Porsche jumped 3% on better-than-expected operating loss figures, and banks like Intesa Sanpaolo, UniCredit, and BBVA gained nearly 2%. Schneider advanced 2.1% following a Morgan Stanley upgrade, with ASML, Prosus, and Infineon up between 1.5% and 3%.
• HK - Hang Seng rose 1% to 26,434, boosted by U.S. futures and hopes for a US-China trade agreement as officials outlined a framework to ease tensions ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting. In China, industrial profits increased 3.2% year-on-year through September, with September profits surging 21.6%. The Shanghai Composite continued its record streak. Tech stocks led the advance, with SMIC up 4.4%, and gains from China Hongqiao (3.6%), Citic (3.4%), and Wuxi Biologics (3.2%).
• CN - The Shanghai Composite rose 1.18% to 3,997, hitting a ten-year high, while the Shenzhen Component increased 1.51% to 13,489, driven by hopes for progress in the Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea. Positive developments from US-China negotiations on export controls, fentanyl, and shipping levies boosted sentiment following productive talks in Malaysia. China's industrial profits surged 21.6% year-on-year in September, further uplifting market spirits. Technology and AI stocks led the rally, with Eoptolink Technology, Zhongji Innolight, Victory Giant, Foxconn Industrial, and ZTE Corp advancing between 3% and 10.1%. Clean energy and materials firms also saw gains, including Sungrow Power (1.2%), China Northern Rare Earth (4.1%), and Zijin Mining (3.2%).

Earnings this week:

• Tuesday 
  Asia: Bank of China, HSBC, Ping An Insurance, Advantest, Foshan Haitian
  Outside Asia: Visa, UnitedHealth Group, Novartis, NextEra Energy, Booking Holdings 

• Wednesday  
  Asia: Moutai, Foxconn, China Merchants Bank, Keyence, Sinopec
  Outside Asia: Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Caterpillar, ServiceNow 

• Thursday  
  Asia: AgBank, ICBC, CCB, PetroChina, China Life Insurance
  Outside Asia: Apple, Amazon, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Shell, Gilead Sciences, S&P Global,  

• Friday  
  Asia: Tokyo Electron, Daiichi Sankyo, Hoya, Denso, Maruti Suzuki India
  Outside Asia: Exxon Mobil, AbbVie, Linde, Intesa Sanpaolo, Aon

FX:

• USD began the week with slight weakness as US-China trade talks boosted risk appetite, driving equities higher ahead of the anticipated Trump-Xi meeting. Despite positive market sentiment, the DXY traded within a narrow range near 98.70.
• USDCAD remained unaffected by President Trump's new 10% tariff on Canada.
•  Antipodean currencies showed strength, benefiting from improved US relations; the AUD rose to 0.6557, while the NZD reached 0.5775, fueled by RBA comments on easing rates.
•  Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index exceeded expectations, although the EUR remained stable amid EU-China trade tensions. EURUSD traded at 1.1654.
• CNH strengthened further after the PBoC favored it in its fix, supporting broader emerging market currencies and exerting mild pressure on the Dollar.

Commodities: 

• Oil steadied after a two-day decline as investors weighed evidence of a glut and the fallout from Western sanctions on Russian producers. WTI traded around $61, while Brent closed below $66 on Monday. Global seaborne shipments hit a record, underscoring rising supply, and OPEC+ may agree to raise output at this weekend’s meeting.
• Gold had 3.2% drop that briefly took it below $4,000 an ounce, as US–China trade progress curbed haven demand; rising Treasury yields, despite Fed‑easing bets, kept pressure on the non‑interest‑bearing metal.
• Copper neared a record as US–China deal optimism added to a rally fuelled by mine disruptions; LME climbed 1.2% to $11,094 per tonne, roughly $10 below the May 2024 high, before easing.

Fixed income:  

• Treasuries twist‑flattened as the long end outperformed, with the 7‑year sector little changed amid 2‑ and 5‑year issuance. The move stalled after both auctions drew solid demand and healthy bidding metrics. US 10‑year yields settled around 3.995%, near session lows. Australia’s curve also twist‑flattened after RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s comments tempered expectations of a rate cut next week.

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