Asia Market Quick Take – January 05, 2026

Key points:

• Macro: US strikes Venezuela and captures President Maduro and his wife
• Equities: Baidu gained 8.8% on AI chip IPO while ASML soared 7% after major upgrade
• FX: Mixed G10 currencies; NZD, AUD up, JPY stable
• Commodities: Gold and Silver rises after US capture of Venezuela's President
• Fixed income: Treasuries fall on first trading day

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• US President Trump announced on Saturday that the US successfully carried out a large-scale strike against Venezuela, while he added that President Maduro and his wife were captured and flown out of Venezuela. Trump also commented that they are going to run Venezuela until such a time that they can do a safe, proper and judicious transition, while he added they are going to run Venezuela with a group and will get oil flowing like it should be, with Trump anticipating US oil producers spending billions in Venezuela.
• The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI dropped to 51.8 in December 2025 from 52.2 in November, marking the weakest growth in five months. Orders and exports fell, output growth slowed, and business confidence waned amid tariff uncertainties. Employment rose, and inflation eased slightly but stayed high.
• Fed's Paulson anticipates 2% growth, moderating inflation, and stable labor markets in 2026, suggesting possible rate adjustments if conditions meet expectations. She sees rates as restrictive and forecasts near 2% inflation as tariff effects ease. She describes the labor market as resilient and the economic outlook as benign.
•  The S&P Global Japan Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.0 in December 2025 from 49.7 initially and 48.7 in November, signaling stable conditions. This ended a five-month decline and was the highest reading since June, with stable output and slower declines in new orders.

Equities:

• US - US stocks closed mostly higher after a volatile start to 2025, amid concerns over AI firms’ heavy spending. The Dow jumped 370 points on strength in core sectors, while the S&P 500 rose 0.3% and Nasdaq ended flat. Chipmakers surged: Nvidia gained 2%, Micron 10%, and Intel 7%, supported by Baidu’s AI chip IPO plans and ASML upgrades. Furniture stocks advanced as Trump delayed tariffs, with Wayfair up 6% and RH up 8%. AI software names fell—Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Palantir dropped 2–5%. Tesla slid 2.5% after missing Q4 deliveries. Broader sentiment was lifted by expectations of solid growth and lower Fed rates.
• EU - European stocks hit record highs in the year’s first session, led by tech and industrials as investors assessed macroeconomic conditions. The Eurozone STOXX 50 rose 0.9% to 5,844, while STOXX 600 gained 0.6% to 596. ASML surged nearly 7% after major upgrades and optimism from Asian chip IPOs. Automakers advanced, with Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Volkswagen up over 3%, while Safran and Airbus climbed 3%, boosting aerospace and defense. 
• HK- Hong Kong stocks surged on the first trading day of 2026, with the Hang Seng jumping 708 points (2.8%) to a six-week high of 26,384. Tech led gains as DeepSeek’s paper on cheaper AI development boosted sentiment, while Xi Jinping signaled more proactive policies after ~5% growth last year. Baidu soared 8.8% on plans to list its AI chip unit, and Hua Hong Semiconductor spiked 12.8% after announcing a CNY 7.6B private placement. Shanghai Biren Technology more than doubled on its Hong Kong debut, marking the year’s first IPO. 

Earnings this week:

• Tuesday:AngioDynamics, AAR, and Penguin Solutions. 
• Wednesday: Constellation Brands, Jefferies, Albertsons, PriceSmart, Azenta.
• Thursday:TD SYNNEX, Helen of Troy, Acuity Brands, and RPM International, Fast Retailing, Seven & I

FX:

• G10 currencies showed mixed performance against the USD. EURUSD remained stable within 1.1712-1.1765, while GBPUSD and USDCAD saw limited movement in their respective ranges. 
• NZD and AUD performed well amid strong risk sentiment and metal prices, with cautious trading ahead of Australia's CPI. 
• JPY was steady in a narrow range of 156.56–157.00 following a volatile 2025 marked by political uncertainties and BoJ tightening.

Commodities:

• Oil fell, with Brent near $60 and WTI around $57, as traders weighed the US capture of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro; Trump said sanctions will remain while US firms help rebuild, and OPEC+ kept its Q1 pause amid a glut and uncertainty over Venezuelan supply.
• Gold and silver rose as investors sought safety after the US capture of Nicolás Maduro, with spot gold up 0.9% above $4,370 early Monday; Trump said the US plans to “run” Venezuela, adding to governance uncertainty, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington would use oil leverage to force further change.

Fixed income:

• US Treasuries fell on the year’s first trading day, extending losses after a seller-initiated block trade in 10-year note futures, as partial rebounds in US stocks and oil, weakness in Australia’s bonds during Asia hours and in German and UK markets, and anticipated hedging ahead of a flood of corporate issuance weighed on the market, with about $70 billion expected and a $215 billion monthly total on track for a January record.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

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