Asia Market Quick Take – January 27, 2026

Key points:

• Macro: Trump announces increase in tariffs for South Korea to 25%
• Equities:  S&P 500 gained 0.5% ahead of megacap earnings
• FX: USD declines to Dollar Index 97; USDJPY drops to 153.31 on intervention fears
• Commodities: Silver pared gains after 14% jump to record breaking $117
• Fixed income: Treasuries up on strong 2-year note auction

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro: 

• Trump announced tariffs on South Korean goods would rise from 15% to 25%, affecting products like cars and pharmaceuticals. Timing is unclear. A July deal had prevented such an increase and offered preferential rates on imports.
• US durable goods orders jumped 5.3% in November 2025, rebounding from a 2.1% October drop, driven by a 97.6% surge in civilian aircraft orders. Other increases included electrical equipment, metals, machinery, and electronics. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.5%; excluding defense, they surged 6.6%. Non-defense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft, increased 0.7%.
• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to -0.04 in November 2025 from -0.42 in October, showing enhanced economic growth. Production contributed +0.08, up from -0.26; employment improved to -0.07 from -0.11; sales and inventories held at -0.03; and consumption and housing ticked up to -0.02. The CFNAI Diffusion Index rose to -0.24 from -0.43.
• Focus is on Wednesday’s Fed decision amid speculation of a new Fed Chair and a possible shutdown from Democratic opposition to Homeland Security spending. Trade uncertainty remains with Trump’s tariff threat on Canadian imports linked to a China deal, though Ottawa downplays it.

Equities:

• US - US stocks advanced Monday, with the S&P 500 up 0.6%, the Dow 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 0.5% as investors positioned ahead of a busy week of earnings and the Fed decision. Tech and communication services led gains, with Apple rising 3%, Meta 2.1%, and Microsoft 0.9%, while consumer discretionary lagged as Tesla fell 3.1%. Markets focused on Wednesday’s Fed announcement and renewed government funding risks. Safe‑haven demand lifted gold to record highs above $5,100 amid geopolitical and fiscal concerns, even as overall earnings expectations remained supportive.
• EU - European equities edged higher Monday, with the STOXX 50 up 0.2% and the STOXX 600 rising 0.3%, supported by gains in major banks and utilities as investors looked past trade‑flow worries and monitored Eurozone rate expectations. Canadian PM Mark Carney said Canada would not pursue a China trade deal after President Trump warned of 100% tariffs if such an agreement were signed. European lenders rallied, with Santander, Intesa Sanpaolo, BBVA, and ING climbing 1–2%, while Iberdrola and Enel also advanced. In contrast, defense stocks lagged, led by a 2.2% drop in Rheinmetall.
• HK - Hang Seng edged up to 26,765 on Monday, extending its winning streak to four sessions as property and financial stocks led gains. The property sector rose 1.8%, supported by signs of stabilizing housing demand amid lower rates, rising rents, and the removal of stamp duty. Gold and mining names outperformed, boosted by record gold prices above USD 5,000. Strong movers included Sun Hung Kai Properties, Mixue Group, and China Hongqiao. 

Earnings this week:

• Tuesday – United Health Group, Boeing, UPS, GM, Texas Instruments
• Wednesday - ASML, GE Vernova, AT&T, Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Lam Research, IBM
• Thursday - Mastercard, Caterpillar, Nokia, Visa, Apple, Sandisk, SAP
• Friday - Verizon, American Express, CN, Chevron, ExxonMobil

FX:

• USD fell for the third day, approaching its weakest level since 2022, amid options sentiment souring and trade tensions. Dollar Index declined to 97 level. The risk of a US government shutdown and political tensions weighed on the greenback.
• USDJPY dropped 1.5% to 153.31, its lowest since November, following intervention comments by PM Takaichi. Japan's currency chief emphasized appropriate market response in coordination with the US.
• AUDUSD is nearing a three-year high, gaining nearly 4% in 2026 to around 0.6900, driven by central bank hawkishness and high bond yields. Rising yields widen the US-Australia gap, boosting the Aussie among top G-10 currencies.
• USDCAD was slightly firmer to 1.3715despite Trump's tariff threats affecting USMCA outlook. PM Carneyindicated new trade opportunities with China reduce reliance on the U.S.
• EURUSD rose 0.7% to 1.1907, nearing the September high. GBPUSD climbed 0.3% to 1.3678, benefiting from broader dollar weakness. USDCHF fell 0.4% to 0.7769, trading at its weakest since 2015.

Commodities:

• Gold rose, holding above $5,000 an ounce for a second day as a weaker dollar extended a rally driven by geopolitical risks and a flight from sovereign bonds and currencies, with bullion up as much as 0.8% early Tuesday for a seventh straight gain after a dollar gauge hit a near four-year low and as US President Donald Trump threatened to raise tariffs on South Korean goods to 25%.
• Silver pared most of its surge in late US trading as volatility disrupted a rally to fresh records, ending Monday up 0.6% after earlier jumping more than 14% to a record above $117 an ounce—the biggest intraday gain since 2008.
• Oil steadied as traders weighed the demand impact of a sweeping US winter storm that disrupted major Gulf Coast refiners, including Exxon Mobil, and curtailed some production, with WTI near $61 after Monday’s 0.7% drop and Brent below $66, even as deep snow and ice may prolong effects.

Fixed income:

• Treasuries rose as a strong two-year note auction—stopping through by 1.4bp—reinforced expectations for Fed cuts, offsetting front-end yield pressure from stronger November durable goods orders as dip-buyers emerged, while European debt gains led by France amid budget progress added support.

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