Weekly FX Chartbook: US CPI and US-China trade tensions on the radar Weekly FX Chartbook: US CPI and US-China trade tensions on the radar Weekly FX Chartbook: US CPI and US-China trade tensions on the radar

Weekly FX Chartbook: US CPI and US-China trade tensions on the radar

Forex 5 minutes to read
Charu Chanana

Head of FX Strategy

Key points:

  • USD: Downside risks from softer CPI surprise could be offset by tariff risks
  • EUR: 1.08 in focus if US core CPI is below 0.4% MoM
  • JPY: Bulls could be in action if US inflation slows
  • GBP: Softer jobs data can fuel dovish repricing
  • AUD: Upside from budget announcement and US CPI could be compromised by softer jobs and China risks
  • CNH: China’s easing expectations and tariff risks will strengthen yuan bears
Yen erased intervention-driven gains partially, fueling some stability for the US dollar while precious metals led the gains.
Our FX Scorecard shows momentum in precious metals could sustain with risks of a softer US CPI this week along with safe-haven demand amid escalation in US-China trade war. CNH and AUD momentum turning negative on tariff risks and disappointment in Chinese credit data.
Forex COT to the week of May 7 saw dollar longs pared but still at the highest since November 2021. EUR positioning was back to a net long and shorts were covered in JPY, AUD and GBP.
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