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CFDs and forex spot transactions are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor lose money when trading CFDs and/or forex spot with this provider. 0.42% of retail clients trading in leveraged products experience a negative account balance after a stop out occurred.
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CFDs and forex spot transactions are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor lose money when trading CFDs and/or forex spot with this provider. 0.42% of retail clients trading in leveraged products experience a negative account balance after a stop out occurred. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, forex spot transactions or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take high risk of losing your money.
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Weekly FX Chartbook: US CPI and US-China trade tensions on the radar

Weekly FX Chartbook: US CPI and US-China trade tensions on the radar

Forex 5 minutes to read
Charu Chanana

Chief Investment Strategist

Key points:

  • USD: Downside risks from softer CPI surprise could be offset by tariff risks
  • EUR: 1.08 in focus if US core CPI is below 0.4% MoM
  • JPY: Bulls could be in action if US inflation slows
  • GBP: Softer jobs data can fuel dovish repricing
  • AUD: Upside from budget announcement and US CPI could be compromised by softer jobs and China risks
  • CNH: China’s easing expectations and tariff risks will strengthen yuan bears
Yen erased intervention-driven gains partially, fueling some stability for the US dollar while precious metals led the gains.
Our FX Scorecard shows momentum in precious metals could sustain with risks of a softer US CPI this week along with safe-haven demand amid escalation in US-China trade war. CNH and AUD momentum turning negative on tariff risks and disappointment in Chinese credit data.
Forex COT to the week of May 7 saw dollar longs pared but still at the highest since November 2021. EUR positioning was back to a net long and shorts were covered in JPY, AUD and GBP.

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Other recent Macro/FX articles:

13 May: Global Market Quick Take - Asia
8 May: Bank of England preview: Rate cuts in mind, but patience required
7 May: AUD: RBA fails to meet the hawkish expectations
3 May: JPY: Staying on intervention alert
2 May: Fed Decision: High-for-longer, not higher-for-longer
30 Apr: AUD: Retail sales miss questions RBA market pricing
30 Apr: FOMC rate decision: How to trade the event
29 Apr: Weekly FX Chartbook: Fed’s hawkishness meets BOJ’s dovishness
29 Apr: Macro Podcast: Japanese drama - what's next for the yen?
26 Apr: JPY: Bank of Japan adds to reasons to stay bearish yen
25 Apr: JPY: Accelerated sell-off; can the BOJ halt yen's decline?
25 Apr: Thematic Podcast: Deciphering Asian forex interventions
23 Apr: GBP: What can drive the next leg lower?
22 Apr: Weekly FX Chartbook: Stretched USD strength is raising intervention alert
19 Apr: FX 101: Using FX for portfolio diversification
18 Apr: JPY: Intervention alert, or a BOJ alert?
16 Apr: Chinese Yuan’s Double Whammy - Dollar Strength and Yen Weakness
12 Apr: Riding the Fed-ECB Policy Divergence
11 Apr: ECB rate decision: How to trade the event
9 Apr: CAD vulnerable as market underprices dovish Bank of Canada risks
9 Apr: US inflation report: How to trade the event
8 Apr: Macro and FX Podcast: NFP, CPI, ECB and Japan

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Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. Please ensure you consult our Risk Warning before you start trading and you understand the risks.

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

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