Weekly FX Chartbook: Soft-landing hopes and US exceptionalism will remain at play

Weekly FX Chartbook: Soft-landing hopes and US exceptionalism will remain at play

Forex 5 minutes to read
Charu Chanana

Chief Investment Strategist

Summary:  US GDP and PCE could add to soft-landing hopes, but the dollar may still find support if the Bank of Japan under-delivers on hawkish expectations or European/UK data disappoints. Yen’s bearish bias likely to stay, although intervention risks cap gains in USDJPY. GBP momentum may be weakening, but equity correlation will likely provide support. Meanwhile, Chinese yuan, and consequently AUD, could be supported ahead of Lunar New Year.


Dollar strength returned as rate cut pricing was pushed back. Soft landing expectations could questions the dollar rebound, but US exceptionalism is likely to remain in play amid weakness in ex-US data and that could provide a floor.
Soft-landing hopes could fuel more positive momentum in pro-cyclical FX such as AUD and CAD, and negative momentum in haven FX such as CHF.
Forex COT to the week of Jan 16 indicated short-covering in dollar as speculative shorts were reduced by 23%. Speculators sold EUR and AUD, slightly offset by longs being added to GBP.

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