Weekly FX Chartbook: Soft-landing hopes and US exceptionalism will remain at play Weekly FX Chartbook: Soft-landing hopes and US exceptionalism will remain at play Weekly FX Chartbook: Soft-landing hopes and US exceptionalism will remain at play

Weekly FX Chartbook: Soft-landing hopes and US exceptionalism will remain at play

Forex 5 minutes to read
Charu Chanana

Head of FX Strategy

Summary:  US GDP and PCE could add to soft-landing hopes, but the dollar may still find support if the Bank of Japan under-delivers on hawkish expectations or European/UK data disappoints. Yen’s bearish bias likely to stay, although intervention risks cap gains in USDJPY. GBP momentum may be weakening, but equity correlation will likely provide support. Meanwhile, Chinese yuan, and consequently AUD, could be supported ahead of Lunar New Year.

Dollar strength returned as rate cut pricing was pushed back. Soft landing expectations could questions the dollar rebound, but US exceptionalism is likely to remain in play amid weakness in ex-US data and that could provide a floor.
Soft-landing hopes could fuel more positive momentum in pro-cyclical FX such as AUD and CAD, and negative momentum in haven FX such as CHF.
Forex COT to the week of Jan 16 indicated short-covering in dollar as speculative shorts were reduced by 23%. Speculators sold EUR and AUD, slightly offset by longs being added to GBP.


Other recent Macro/FX articles:

19 Jan:  A reality check on Bank of Japan’s policy normalization and JPY appreciation expectations
15 Jan: Weekly FX Chartbook: UK data will be a test of GBP resilience
12 Jan: Markets ignore CPI uptick, Mideast tensions could fuel haven and oil-related FX
9 Jan: FX Quarterly Outlook: High yielding currencies will start to lose their appeal
9 Jan: US CPI Preview: Markets could be sensitive to an upside surprise
8 Jan: Macro and FX Podcast: Upcoming US CPI figures, USD momentum, and musings on China
8 Jan: Weekly FX Chartbook: Room for tactical gains in USD
18 Dec: Macro and FX Podcast: Watch USD sentiment and BoJ hints on rate policy
18 Dec: Weekly FX Chartbook: Dollar to end 2023 in a bearish trend
15 Dec: ECB’s policy mistake, Bank of Japan comes next
13 Dec: Fed has a final chance to pushback on rate cut expectations
11 Dec: Weekly FX Chartbook: Relative Fed and ECB policy messaging to matter more than absolute stances
11 Dec: Macro and FX Podcast: Will central banks, inflation, and PMIs deliver fireworks?
8 Dec: Exploring the impact of US NFP on different asset classes, BOJ will stick with gradualism
5 Dec: RBA under-delivers: AUD momentum could turn bearish, particularly on the crosses
4 Dec: Weekly FX Chartbook: Dovish Fed and ECB bets picking up
4 Dec: Macro and FX Podcast: Key macro data this week, the USD slide ended and gold is on the move
1 Dec: USD in a dovish fatigue, EUR gives up 1.10, and markets look to Powell


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