Head of FX Strategy
Summary: US GDP and PCE could add to soft-landing hopes, but the dollar may still find support if the Bank of Japan under-delivers on hawkish expectations or European/UK data disappoints. Yen’s bearish bias likely to stay, although intervention risks cap gains in USDJPY. GBP momentum may be weakening, but equity correlation will likely provide support. Meanwhile, Chinese yuan, and consequently AUD, could be supported ahead of Lunar New Year.
Other recent Macro/FX articles:
19 Jan: A reality check on Bank of Japan’s policy normalization and JPY appreciation expectations
15 Jan: Weekly FX Chartbook: UK data will be a test of GBP resilience
12 Jan: Markets ignore CPI uptick, Mideast tensions could fuel haven and oil-related FX
9 Jan: FX Quarterly Outlook: High yielding currencies will start to lose their appeal
9 Jan: US CPI Preview: Markets could be sensitive to an upside surprise
8 Jan: Macro and FX Podcast: Upcoming US CPI figures, USD momentum, and musings on China
8 Jan: Weekly FX Chartbook: Room for tactical gains in USD
18 Dec: Macro and FX Podcast: Watch USD sentiment and BoJ hints on rate policy
18 Dec: Weekly FX Chartbook: Dollar to end 2023 in a bearish trend
15 Dec: ECB’s policy mistake, Bank of Japan comes next
13 Dec: Fed has a final chance to pushback on rate cut expectations
11 Dec: Weekly FX Chartbook: Relative Fed and ECB policy messaging to matter more than absolute stances
11 Dec: Macro and FX Podcast: Will central banks, inflation, and PMIs deliver fireworks?
8 Dec: Exploring the impact of US NFP on different asset classes, BOJ will stick with gradualism
5 Dec: RBA under-delivers: AUD momentum could turn bearish, particularly on the crosses
4 Dec: Weekly FX Chartbook: Dovish Fed and ECB bets picking up
4 Dec: Macro and FX Podcast: Key macro data this week, the USD slide ended and gold is on the move
1 Dec: USD in a dovish fatigue, EUR gives up 1.10, and markets look to Powell
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
