Technical Update - Navigating EURUSD's indecision, and GBPUSD and USDCHF's corrections in their uptrends Technical Update - Navigating EURUSD's indecision, and GBPUSD and USDCHF's corrections in their uptrends Technical Update - Navigating EURUSD's indecision, and GBPUSD and USDCHF's corrections in their uptrends

Technical Update - Navigating EURUSD's indecision, and GBPUSD and USDCHF's corrections in their uptrends

Forex 3 minutes to read
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Summary:  It seems like EURUSD is caught in a tug of war, with conflicting signals from short, medium, and longer-term Moving Averages causing a lack of clear direction.
GBPUSD, on the other hand, is in an uptrend but displaying corrective behavior. There's a possibility of a larger correction before the uptrend is likely to resume.
As for USDCHF, it's trading in a corrective sideways pattern. While there's an underlying bullish trend, confirmation is needed to validate any potential continuation of the trend. Traders should closely monitor price action and key levels for confirmation of the next directional move.

EURUSD appears indecisive regarding its direction, likely influenced by conflicting signals from the moving averages; the 100 and 200 are rising, indicating a bullish trend in the mid to long term, while the 55 is declining, suggesting a bearish trend in the short- to medium term.

However, the recent crossover of the 100 moving average above the 200 moving average suggests that the bullish trend may eventually prevail over the short-term bearish trend.

EURUSD faced rejection at the 0.618 retracement of the January-February bearish move, at 1.0970. Currently, it is finding support at the 0.382 retracement of the February-March bullish move, at 1.0871.

The RSI is displaying positive sentiment, indicating that EURUSD is likely to resume its uptrend. However, the ongoing corrective move could potentially push EURUSD down to the 0.618 retracement level at 1.0804, where strong support is expected.
In such a scenario, a bounce should be anticipated. A close below 1.08 could further pressure EURUSD lower towards 1.0756.

Source all charts and data: Saxo Group

GBPUSD faced resistance and lost its upward momentum just below the 1.29 level. The analysis of the weekly chart indicates that the 200-week Moving Average has provided significant resistance, halting further gains for the time being.

At present, GBPUSD is finding support at the 0.382 retracement level, situated around 1.2750. However, there is a potential for a correction down to the 0.618 retracement level at 1.2661.

The trends on both the daily and weekly charts are upward, as indicated by the ascending 100 and 200 Moving Averages.

Furthermore, the RSI indicators on both daily and weekly charts are showing positive sentiment, suggesting that GBPUSD may continue its upward trajectory.

Should GBPUSD resume its uptrend, it might face resistance once again near the 1.29 level previously tested. A daily close above the 0.786 retracement at 1.2909 could furhter push GBPUS higher to the 2023 peak around 1.3146 

USDCHF is currently trading within a corrective sideways range, bounded by 0.8740 and 0.89. The short-term trend appears bullish, suggesting a potential continuation of the upward movement.

There's a likelihood of USDCHF bouncing from the lower boundary of the range at 0.8740 and testing the resistance level and 0.618 retracement at 0.89. A successful break above this resistance could signal a bullish move towards the 0.786 retracement level at 0.9047.

However, it's important to note that a close below the support level at 0.8740 would invalidate this bullish scenario and potentially reverse the trend. Traders should closely monitor price action around these key levels for confirmation of the anticipated trend continuation or reversal


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
- Full disclaimer (
- Full disclaimer (

Boulevard Plaza, Tower 1, 30th floor, office 3002
Downtown, P.O. Box 33641 Dubai, UAE

Contact Saxo

Select region


Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

Saxo Bank A/S is licensed by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and operates in the UAE under a representative office license issued by the Central bank of the UAE.

The content and material made available on this website and the linked sites are provided by Saxo Bank A/S. It is the sole responsibility of the recipient to ascertain the terms of and comply with any local laws or regulation to which they are subject.

The UAE Representative Office of Saxo Bank A/S markets the Saxo Bank A/S trading platform and the products offered by Saxo Bank A/S.