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Technical Update - EURCHF likely to test key resistance shortly. USDCHF range bound for some time but be ready for break out
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
- EURCHF key resistance at 0.9840 could be tested and broken
- USDCHF likely range bound between 0.90 and 0.9245.
EURCHF key resistance at around 0.9840 could soon be tested once again. The resistance level goes back to June 2023 and has over the past couple of months been tested twice. EURCHF has been rejected every single time. But maybe this time it could break it? A close above could fuel a new rally higher towards the 0.786 retracement of the entire bearish trend since Q1 2023 at 0.9917 – see weekly chart
However a spike up to 1.00 could be seen, and there is no strong resistance until around 1.0050-1.010.
The daily moving averages are all rising indicating underlying bullish trend sentiment. The RSI is showing positive sentiment but with divergence. But if RSI is closing back above the 60 threshold EURCHF is likely to break the 0.9840 resistance
A daily close below 0.9675 could very likely see EURCHF staying below this time if occurring and not just spiking lower like 19th April. If that scenario plays out a sell-off down to strong support at around 0.9560 would be likely.
First indication of that scenario playing out is likely to be if RSI is closing below its lower rising trendline
USDCHF is hovering around its lower rising trendline above key support at around 0.90.
The strength indicator RSI is still showing positive sentiment but is also showing divergence suggesting uptrend exhaustion.
However, a close below 0.90 is needed for a bearish move down to support at around 0.8880.
USDCHF could be caught range bound between 0.90 and strong resistance at around 0.9225-0.9245 for the next few weeks.
On the weekly chart, it can be seen why the 0.9245 level is a strong resistance. It is the peak just prior to the massive sell-off back in Q3 2023.
A break above that level could fuel a rally towards 0.94.
The strength indicator RSI is still showing positive sentiment but is also showing divergence suggesting uptrend exhaustion.
However, a close below 0.90 is needed for a bearish move down to support at around 0.8880.
USDCHF could be caught range bound between 0.90 and strong resistance at around 0.9225-0.9245 for the next few weeks.
On the weekly chart, it can be seen why the 0.9245 level is a strong resistance. It is the peak just prior to the massive sell-off back in Q3 2023.
A break above that level could fuel a rally towards 0.94.
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