Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
AUDUSD bounced from support at around 0.6675 only to be rejected at the 200 daily Moving Average. AUDUSD could be range bound between 0.6575 and 0.6785 for some time. . The upper range is likely a hard nut to crack with both the 200 MA and 100 MA above and the 55 MA coming down. But if AUDUSD does close above 0.6785 there is short-term upside potential to the 0.618 retracement at around 0.6930.
If AUDUSD breaks below 0.6560 downtrend is set to be extended towards 2022 lows around 0.6180 with some support at around 0.64.
AUDJPY is jumping around the support at around 87.00 which is the Neckline in the Shoulder-Head-Shoulder like pattern – see weekly chart. A short-term bounce to around 0.8871 could be seen.
But the trend is down, all Moving Averages declining and RSI is showing negative sentiment.
The Shoulder-Head-Shoulder like pattern is more clear on the weekly chart. Down side potential to support at around 80.47 and 77.90 which is approx.. 0.618 and 0.786 projection of the Head to Neckline distance.
To reverse this bearish picture a move above right shoulder i.e., above 83.05, is needed.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.