FX Breakout Monitor: USD poking at breakout levels amidst record calm

FX Breakout Monitor: USD poking at breakout levels amidst record calm

Forex 4 minutes to read
John J. Hardy

Chief Macro Strategist

Summary:  The US dollar is hardly showing impressive momentum by historic standards, but is following up a bit on the strength that market the initial days of trading this year and this will take the US dollar close to breakout levels higher in a number of currency pairs if it continues.


Today’s Breakout monitor

The FX Breakout Monitor is a concise PDF overview of all current and recent price breakouts for the short and medium term for major FX pairs and spot silver and gold.

A PDF of today’s Breakout Monitor

Below is a snapshot of the full list of currency pairs we track for the breakout monitor. USDJPY is the only major USD pair that has worked free of the recent range, but a number of other USD pairs are getting close here -especially some of the USD/G10 small pairs – after a spate of solid US data, including an absurdly strong US Housing Starts number from today.

Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group

Aside from interesting in USD breakouts, we note that the EURCHF breakout status is still in play after its recent move below 1.0800, but that the USDCHF breakout has backed up badly in line with the firmer US dollar, creating a divergent momentum setup if the pair closes strongly today. Other standouts include USD/EM breaks in USDZAR and USDTHB, while the EURSEK break of the 19-day high yesterday looks somewhat questionable from a technical perspective.

Today’s Breakout Highlight: EURUSD
Implied volatility in the options market for EURUSD is having a go at the all-time lows for virtually every major tenor today as the market has given up on major moves in the pair after the last 18 months or more of treacherous trading conditions for trend traders. Since the early October lows last year – the pair has tried to put together a structural base, but a move through local lows and especially a move below 1.1000 would begin to suggest that this basing assumption is under fire. For now, the local 19-day low close is just below 1.1100 – near where we currently trade, and the local pivot low around the same area looks a bit more relevant in a breakout context.

Source: Saxo Group

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Quarterly Outlook

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...


Business Hills Park – Building 4,
4th Floor, office 401, Dubai Hills Estate, P.O. Box 33641, Dubai, UAE

Contact Saxo

Select region

UAE
UAE

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

Saxo Bank A/S is licensed by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and operates in the UAE under a representative office license issued by the Central bank of the UAE.

The content and material made available on this website and the linked sites are provided by Saxo Bank A/S. It is the sole responsibility of the recipient to ascertain the terms of and comply with any local laws or regulation to which they are subject.

The UAE Representative Office of Saxo Bank A/S markets the Saxo Bank A/S trading platform and the products offered by Saxo Bank A/S.