Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy

Global Head of Investment Strategy
From FOMO to fear itself, these are the monsters that quietly destroy long-term wealth.
Halloween is the season of ghosts, ghouls and things that rattle in the dark.
 But for investors, the real horrors don’t hide in graveyards or misty forests. They live in your portfolio, waiting for a moment of weakness to strike.
You won’t find them creeping through alleys. They hide in red charts, breaking-news alerts and that small voice whispering, “This time is different.”
If horror films teach us anything, it’s that the danger often comes from inside the house. In investing, it’s the same story. The scariest losses are usually the ones we cause ourselves.
So light a candle, steady your nerves and step inside the haunted mansion of behavioural finance. Here are the five portfolio monsters most likely to scare your long-term returns to death.
Few things spread faster than panic. When markets tumble, headlines shout “crisis”, screens flash crimson and every instinct screams to get out.
It feels like self-preservation. It feels clever. But panic selling is how investors turn temporary losses into permanent damage.
The historical numbers are pretty brutal. Miss only the ten best days in the market over twenty years and your total return can be cut in half. Those best days often arrive when fear still dominates the front page.
Panic does more than lose money. It breaks the routine that makes compounding work. Once you sell in fear, it becomes easier to do it again.
The antidote: Decide in advance how much loss you can live with and keep enough cash so you are never forced to sell. Write your crisis plan while you are calm, not while the market is screaming.
The ghost of FOMO does not whisper. It sings. It tells you that everyone else is getting rich, that this is your chance, that you’ll regret staying on the sidelines.
AI, quantum, crypto, green energy, meme stocks – the costumes change, but the story stays the same. By the time something feels like a can’t-miss opportunity, it is usually already priced for perfection. When the excitement fades, the silence is painful.
FOMO tempts you to chase someone else’s profits. You end up buying what they are already selling.
The antidote: Automate your investments so you add money regularly through calm and chaos. If you want to follow a hot theme, keep it small and separate from your core portfolio. Buy when the crowd is bored, not when it is shouting.
Every investor dreams of building a masterpiece, a hand-picked collection of winners that proves they see what others do not. Then one flash of lightning changes everything. A profit warning, a new regulation, a fresh competitor. Suddenly the creation turns on its maker.
Overconfidence is the most seductive illusion in finance. It feels empowering but blinds you to risk. The market does not reward certainty. Even great companies stumble when conditions shift.
A portfolio built purely on conviction is like a castle built on wet sand.
The antidote: Diversify by behaviour, not just by name. Ten technology shares do not make you diversified, even if they trade under different tickers. Spread risk across sectors, regions and business cycles. Your future self will be grateful for a touch of humility.
Every investor imagines it. Selling right before a crash and buying back just as the rebound begins. The fantasy of perfect timing is intoxicating and ruinous.
Even professionals with data and models rarely get both decisions right. Most people sell too late, wait too long and miss the recovery. What they lose is not only return but also confidence. The guessing game becomes exhausting.
Markets move on surprises. The future does not send invitations.
The antidote: Replace prediction with discipline. Set a long-term allocation that fits your tolerance for risk and rebalance it when it drifts. It is not glamorous, but it makes you sell high and buy low without even noticing.
This is the quietest form of decay. No panic, no greed, just drift. A few trades here, a hunch there, a handful of forgotten funds still haunting the corner of your account.
Over time, it becomes unclear what your portfolio is meant to achieve. There is no benchmark, no goal, no direction. It looks busy but nothing connects. It is alive, yet full of ghosts.
The antidote: Write a single-page plan that states why you invest, how much risk you can take and when you will review. Automate your contributions and resist the urge to fiddle with the mix. Consistency compounds. Impulse does not.
Markets have always been haunted by the same spirits: fear, greed, noise and stories that sound irresistible. But the monsters that cause the most damage are not out there. They live inside us.
The investors who endure are not the ones without fear. They are the ones who build systems that protect them from their own instincts.
So this Halloween, do not fear volatility. Fear inconsistency. Fear the reflex to act just because everyone else is acting. Fear the soft voice that whispers, “It’ll be fine this time.”
Happy Halloween. May your portfolio rest in peace.
 
 
This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
 
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